AQ turns trips (NL200)

[Andykay]

Unfortunately HH is gone here, so i'll do my best to make it neat. This hand was on Party a day or two ago. Villain is Proposition Mike who is one of the best TAG regulars in that game in my opinion. He runs about 21/16/2.5 or so. We have a reasonable amount of history, including a bit of light 3 betting. He knows i'm capable of making moves and I think the same of him.

Onto the hand.

Me: $350
Him: Covers

I raise AQ from MP, he calls on the button.

Flop QcJc2s

He calls my cbet (about $14 into $17)

Turn Qd

I check, he bets $40, I make it $120.

Suits may not be 100% accurate but aside from the flop FD they had no bearing. My main question is, who likes a lead and who likes the C/R. At the time obviously I felt like trying to get sneaky with the C/R, but in retrospect I think that loses a fair bit of value overall.

The turned Q makes it less likely i've got a Q and more likely i'm two barreling a mid pair, a Jack or some kind of draw (clubs, KT etc) all of which he knows I could do. So he's probably calling a second barrel there with a relatively wide range.

Of course the other option is he's floating and will just fold the turn, or may have called with a hand like 66 that he would bet if checked to but fold when fired on again.

Anyway thoughts?

-Andy

[docnuclear]

I bet the turn, ch/r means you have a Q.
You do get one more bet and some metagame if he floats a lot, doesn't believe you etc...
Depends on your second barrel frequency too and on what you put him on. He might ch behind or raise a weak turn bet or raise a normal sized turn bet too.
It is very player dependant.
I usually second barrel because I bet a lot in general...

[Andykay]

Really, nobody has anything else to add? I kind of think this is an interesting spot.

Not only in terms of what contains more value, but what you do when he shoves over your raise on the turn, or smooth calls and the river comes a club? Or a nine? Or an Ace for that matter.

-Andy

[Willie85]

I tend min raise in positions likes this because it is a move that I would make with pockets under Queens as a semi bluff. The min raise will be a confusing move because the raise suggest that u have a queen. However, its also a good bluff move because it allows you to put the pressure on your opponent without much chip commitment. At this stage he will either push or fold.

[Andykay]

I hate min raising. It's something i've considered adding to my game but I don't utilise at all at the moment.

Michaelson, i'd also be interested in your thoughts. I know you're reading!

-Andy

[soded]

I like to bet out on the turn, as you've been showing aggression... he may not believe you have the queen and can put you on a larger range of hands this way.

[luckybacon]

insta pot the turn

[RikkiDee]

This is interesting because I can't see many hands he is calling this flop and betting the turn with.

I think if he was going to bluff this hand he would do it on the flop with a reraise. The only legit hand that he calls this flop are with some random J, and I doubt he is betting that when checked to on the turn.

I suppose the rare case would be the times he has some sort of draw that he didn't elect to reraise the flop with for whatever reason.

In either case betting the turn is much better because even though his range here will likely not call another bet, he will also not likely bet this turn either when checked to. And giving free cards on this isn't good obviously.

C/R also really turns your hand face up, allowing him to play perfectly really.

[SpecT]

$40 on turn

pot ever river

yes even a Kc river

i hate c/r, like everyone says ur playing ur hand face up.

[Andykay]

Yea I guess the bet is ultimately the best option.

That said if he's floating the check raise is obviously more profitable, as he isn't likely to continue the float into a turn bet.

-Andy