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#1
09-10-2007, 02:52 PM
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KQs - Tell me what you think the SB has here
So this is a quick quiz. I know what I think the SB villian had here, but I wanted to see if others have different thoughts.
SB villian is medium tight, fairly aggressive. I've seen him c/r a draw at least once where he went to showdown, and he may have done it more than that. He'd be good, except he has the worst tells I've ever seen (he blows a big sigh and shakes his head sadly whenever he's hit what he thinks is the best hand). EP is tight, fairly good, but utterly predictable. She's also built back from all in and is being careful with her stack. EP limps, Hero raises K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 1 terrible player calls in LP, SB villian calls, BB folds, EP calls Flop: 8.5 sbets K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] SB checks, EP checks, Hero bets, LP1 calls, SB raises, EP calls, Hero 3-bets, LP1 folds, SB now says "I know, I know, you have the King" and calls, EP calls. Turn: 9bets 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Sb checks, EP checks, Hero bets, SB tanks for 20-30 seconds and folds, EP calls, says "I have to see the river". So it was obvious to me that EP has a Queen, but I wasn't absolutely sure what SB had at the time. I've now good what I think is a good idea of what hand plays this like this, but wanted to see what you all thought so I could figure out if my read was correct. 
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#5
09-10-2007, 04:53 PM
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Re: KQs - Tell me what you think the SB has here
99
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#6
09-10-2007, 05:02 PM
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Re: KQs - Tell me what you think the SB has here
Why would SB fold with a 9 plus a pair? The turn has brought a double gutshot; sure the Q wouldn't be great for him but the 8 will be good, plus add to that 2 more outs for hitting his trips; getting 10:1, this doesn't make sense...
Even AJ, how? He's thinking the Queen maybe chops (so what, count as 2 outs or is he further discounting a likely Q for EP?) but his 2 Jack outs are probably good, so that's 4 outs getting 10:1... I honestly couldn't come up with one hand that checkraises this flop and folds this turn. Am I missing something? The strongest K I have folding that turn is K8 (because the 9 gutshot probably gives a better straight for any Queens), but checkraising the flop with that seems pretty aggressive... GcluelessnoobG
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#7
09-10-2007, 05:35 PM
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Re: KQs - Tell me what you think the SB has here
[ QUOTE ]
Why would SB fold with a 9 plus a pair? The turn has brought a double gutshot; sure the Q wouldn't be great for him but the 8 will be good, plus add to that 2 more outs for hitting his trips; getting 10:1, this doesn't make sense... Even AJ, how? He's thinking the Queen maybe chops (so what, count as 2 outs or is he further discounting a likely Q for EP?) but his 2 Jack outs are probably good, so that's 4 outs getting 10:1... I honestly couldn't come up with one hand that checkraises this flop and folds this turn. Am I missing something? The strongest K I have folding that turn is K8 (because the 9 gutshot probably gives a better straight for any Queens), but checkraising the flop with that seems pretty aggressive... GcluelessnoobG [/ QUOTE ] This is why I put some brainpower into thinking about this. I finally decided that his most likely hand was AJ, since he was aggressive with his raises and also seemed to like to use them for information. With middle pair, a gutshot (probably to a chop), and an overcard (probably tainted though) I think he may have done this. The aggression/fold line was odd though, which is why I posted to see if people agreed.
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#8
09-10-2007, 07:52 PM
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Re: KQs - Tell me what you think the SB has here
[ QUOTE ]
AJo [/ QUOTE ] He's never folding a pair+ ISD I don't think. Medium tight at these levels probably means something closer to pretty loose in 2p2 land. I wouldn't be surprised if he had J8s
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