200NL, Stack off on this flop?

[l3auble]

Villain in the hand is 24/8/0.5 and has been raising a lot lately. Shortstack is a calling station and not really a factor except that his presence makes villain's raising range on the flop wider.

POKERSTARS GAME #11828257810: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($1/$2)
Table 'Ialmenus IV' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: PilsenKid ($386.80 in chips)
Seat 2: 11cards11 ($76.40 in chips)
Seat 3: DaveMacD ($329 in chips)
Seat 4: chadbell ($134 in chips)
Seat 5: MrOnePutt ($209.90 in chips)
Seat 6: HERO($308.20 in chips)
HERO: posts small blind $1
PilsenKid: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO[Kd Kc]
11cards11: calls $2
DaveMacD: raises $4 to $6
chadbell: folds
MrOnePutt: folds
HERO: raises $14 to $20
PilsenKid: folds
11cards11: calls $18
DaveMacD: calls $14
*** FLOP *** [5c 9s 8h]
HERO: bets $44
11cards11: raises $12.40 to $56.40 and is all-in
DaveMacD: raises $95.60 to $152
HERO ??

[ADK]

bigstack seems a very weak/passive player judging by his aggression, easily has a set here.. but just as easily has TT+ trying to get hu with shortty.

i think you can see JJ/QQ here alot (maybe even AA).. im calling and if he has a set or w/e then ul.

some others might disagree though

[nazahl]

ughh... sick spot.

I think I'd probably let this go for 150bbs. w/ the shorty hanging around, villain's calling range preflop is wider, making sets more likely. can u really see him 3betting this flop with QQ or less?

[Kinbor]

i have him at similar stats after 580 hands. and as the stats suggest you are never ahead after he raises the flop so much. i'd say he was isolating preflop the wrong way here and when you reraised he either called w/ a low pocket pair or some kind of suited connector since he had position. after he reraises here you are ahead 1.2% of the time, usually drawing to two outs.

there is very little chance he is raising here w/ something like JJ/QQ/AK/etc. easy fold.

[sh58]

can you convert the hand first of all.

do you think he wil stack off with any overpair, or only a set.

you have to call: $244 to win $404 (i'm not sure if i am right here).

i think it is fairly marginal, i would probably call.

why is villains raising range wider because the shorty pushed

[l3auble]

Because he may think that his QQ-TT is not best but that he can force me out of the pot by trying to isolate the shortstack. All I was saying is that he's more likely to raise with a smaller overpair than mine in this situation because of the presence of a shortstack whom he is probably beating. The shorty was loose and retarded, in this particular hand he showed up with A2, so it's reasonable to assume if the other guy is decent he will try to isolate here and get me to fold a better hand.

I'm not sure folding here is correct which is why I posted it because I think QQ and JJ are a big part of his range and he wants protection. Sure, sets are part of it too but an incorrect laydown here is an enormous mistake.

[Lucky]

you're only really worried about a set from this guy, or badly played AA. I dont think his big flop raise looks like a set. much more like QQ/JJ. Judged on flop action alone, i guess AA looks more likely than set here. But if he's been speedin around, i have trouble getting away from this.

[nazahl]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure folding here is correct which is why I posted it because I think QQ and JJ are a big part of his range and he wants protection.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think QQ/JJ call the flop more often than raise in this spot. he just put over half his stack in on the turn, really looks like its more for value than protection.