FTP, $26 Pot Limit (SH), FT, down to 4 players - AJo in blind battle

[Tackleberry]

Full Tilt Poker
$24+$2 Pot Limit Short handed tourney
Final table, 4 players remaining, deep in the money (289 started, 36 are paid)
Blinds 5k/10k, <u>no antes</u>
Converter

Approx. payout structure:

4th: $569
3rd: $775
2nd: $1100
1st: $1666

Actually I´m second in chips (135k), having slightly more than the last two players (116k/129k). Villain is the chipleader with approx. 490k.

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $30k</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $90k</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero ???</font>

Villain was 30/26 over the last 136 hands (for which I´ve been with him at the table). A couple of hands ago he busted one player with AA, another hand he won a big pot when calling a pfr in the big blind with QJ, hitting a straight on the river. Most pots were taken uncontested by him - which was generally the case at the table for us last four. Very few pots were taken to the flop or even to a showdown. I´ve never seen Villain making a resteal before!

So - is my hand, which has to fear domination as well as QQ/KK/AA good enough to push here? Or better fold and wait for better stealing spots?

[Stumpy]

75k in the pot, and you're shoving if you call.

You have 100k behind.

So you need 100k/(75k + 100k + 100k) = 36.4% equity to shove, ignoring ICM.
(I think you know calling is stupid.)

From ICM, if you fold you have $262 Equity
If you shove and win, (he's calling) you'll have $491 Equity
(Note I've removed 4th place prize for everyone. So $262 more than 4th)

So based on ICM you need:
W%*($491) - (1-W%)*($262) &gt; 0
W% = 262/ (491 + 262) = 34.8% Equity
So ICM is actually making this call a bit easier.

You have to assume he's only gotten more aggressive now that he's the huge stack.
Your image would matter quite a bit.
You've got the equity against something like 66+,KQs,AJs+,AJo+.

[Pokerfarian]

Hmmm, are you saying with 35% equity its -cEV but +$EV? I could well be wrong but I thought that was impossible.
As for the hand, AJ BvB with these stack sizes, I'm getting the chips in the middle.

[helter skelter]

I get a completely different result using this calculator:

http://www.chillin411.com/icmcalc.php

current chips is if you fold
post chips is if you go allin and win

hand needs to win is derived from the % change in your equity if you go allin and win or lose this hand (notice that chip equity is irrelevant at this point)




Adjusting the slider on stove to get as close as possible to 56.1% equity on your hand, I come up with a range for villain of:


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.614% 40.67% 02.95% 177564353 12870560.50 { 66+, A3s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J9s+, T9s, A8o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 56.386% 53.44% 02.95% 233332046 12870560.50 { AhJd }




Conclusion: get allin if you believe his range is this wide, otherwise fold.

(Of course, this ignores other factors like being able to bully with a bigger stack, but I don't know how that could be quantified)

[hamnegger]

i think im ahead. i want to win the tournament i already have a good profit. im shoving at this sob every time.if i double up i can pick on the shorties too avoid the biggie and try to win it.

[Tackleberry]

@stumpy: thanks for your analysis - this seems to legitimate my decision as I actually pushed (which hamnegger suggested as well).

@helter_skelter: you assigned the 2nd a chipcount of 105k which was not correct, I had 135k. Don´t know if this changes the results?

Otherwise - who is right? If I´m not wrong both of you (stumpy as well as helter_skelter) used the ICM - so the results should be the same, shouldn´t they?

By the way: my image was TAG, while I loosened up a bit at the middle/late stage. I was 23/14 over the complete tourney and about 25/20 in the last three levels. When looked up I always showed legitimate hands.

[helter skelter]

It's a fold or go allin decision. If you fold, you have 105K left and the chip distribution is in the current column. If you call and win, the chip distribution is in the the post column.

I'm not sure exactly why Stumpy's is different, but I suspect that you can't calculate ICM by taking out 4th place prize money, since 4th place prize money is still up for grabs if you call and win.

Actually, I did make a mistake. You would have 270K if you call and win. It will change it a little, but not too much. I will redo the calculation if you are still interested.

BTW, I'm pretty sure Pokerfarian is right. I think it has been mathematically proven, that a cEV neutral decison will always be $EV-