It's so much easier to play overpairs in limit

hokke · #1 08-31-2007, 04:33 AM

Villain is 16/7/3.1 over a significant mined sample, but I have no real reads

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($103.40)
CO ($181.05)
Button ($99.50)
SB ($110.11)
BB ($100)
UTG ($112.26)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, SB calls $3.50, 1 fold.

Flop: ($9) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6, SB raises to $13

djshawk · #2 08-31-2007, 06:22 AM

I hate situations like this; here's how I see it:

Your flop bet may look a little weak, with the fd out there I like betting about $8. His raise is barely more than a minraise giving you 4-1 on a call. I don't think a set would raise such a small amount, so I'd say either complete bluff, low pp or fd.

The types of hands I'd expect this kind of villian to call a raise with preflop are mostly pps. I don't think a 16/7 is calling your raise with 67s, 89s or even JTs. AKs/AQs maybe but the checkraise doesn't really make sense with those hands, well hearts does I suppose. Something like 66-QQ seems reasonable so I guess a set is in his range too.

Folding is an option but it seems a bit weak, his raise was really small and you could be cbetting a load on that flop. If you raise you are starting to get committed to the pot, you'd need to pop it to something like 30-35 at which point it's going to be real hard to get away from. I think I'd take the passive line and call, you have position which makes it really awkward for him. If he bets again on the turn then I'd think about dropping it.

hokke · #3 08-31-2007, 08:22 AM

I agree , I don't know why I bet so little on the flop, I would normally bet 8 here with this coordinated flop.

I couldn't put him on much but any pair here considering how tight he is PF.

Anyhow, I called.
Turn is 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
He checked, I checked behind(?)
River is 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
He bets 30 into pot of 35. Can I call this?

djshawk · #4 08-31-2007, 09:33 AM

Tricky, I'd probably fold but then I'm normally a bit weak like that.

His bet looks like he thinks you had a FD and can't call. With the way the action has gone he can't expect to get much out of you so I think a straight/set would bet less here, maybe 1/2 pot.

The only hand I think that really makes sense for him to beat you with is TT.

So I think you are probably good but I'm not sure I could bring myself to call a near psb to find out.

RunDownHouse · #5 08-31-2007, 11:05 AM

hokke,

I definitely bet the turn. It really looks like you are giving a free card to a draw or weaker made hand.

emKay · #6 08-31-2007, 12:26 PM

Villains line doesn't make sense to me. Assuming he is solid, with whose holdings does he take such a line?
I have only limited experience, but the most likely hand seems to be a draw. And assuming that we should def bet the turn, something around 2/3 pot, then check riv behind.
As played, I somewhat cannot imagine this guy bluffing here. Especially since ALL pp's 5 or higher beat us. On the other hand it is questionable if he makes a nearly psb with a set on a 4 straight board.