$6.5 - JJ l1

mattiesmat · #1 08-30-2007, 07:38 PM

Is this really bad and weak play?
Should I have reraised the flop?
How about the other streets?
No reads yet.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) by Hand Converter CG

CO (t1500)
Button (t1490)
SB (t1480)
BB (t1690)
UTG (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1420)
MP1 (t1500)
MP2 (t1420)
Hero (t1500)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 calls t20, Hero raises to t80, 3 folds, BB calls t60, MP2 folds.

Flop: (t190) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets t80, Hero calls t80.

Turn: (t350) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets t80, Hero calls t80.

River: (t510) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets t180, Hero calls t180.

Final Pot: t870

Slim Pickens · #2 08-30-2007, 08:14 PM

It's not that bad or that weak... maybe a little but not a lot.

There's no reason to raise the flop. All better hands are pushing and you probably have to call because of how often it's a stupid bluff. No worse hands shove for value. Many worse made hands shut down if you raise but continue to pay off you don't. No one hand has a good draw to beat you, so there's no pot equity to buy out by raising. Raising is probably very close to neutral whereas calling is solidly +EV.

A turn raise could definitely shut down a better hand, as well as get called by a worse hand. In any case, you get to showdow cheaper most of the time you're behind and still get more value when you're ahead. Any hand that folds to a turn raise was folding to a river bet anyway. Your hand is almost never good if he 3-bet shoves.

As played you call the river. A king probably calls your raise, and Kx is a decent part of his range from the BB, but he can also still think Kx is good and shove. There's a decent chance in a $6 SNG that he hasn't even looked at the board since he flopped trips. That being said, stacking off with a one-card straight in that spot is pretty dumb, since a lot of other hands are beating you and chopping with you, and there's no chance a worse hand other than exactly Kx calls.

Fammy · #3 08-30-2007, 08:37 PM

Slim,

I like your line with one question: At this level do you think there are many people aggro betting this flop without a K in their hand? I think this is a WA/WB situation from the start and I don't mind the line at all as it is so early in the tourny, and though we take a significant hit if we lose, it will not be fatal. Having said that, I just have to think if we are calling down here, it is with the hope that we hit a monster and then capitalize on it. When the T hits on the River, there are only a few hands we are behind to: KK (dead from the beginning), QQ, K9, TT, 99 and AJ. KK is less likely as the BB did not re-raise, though not impossible. Same for QQ. TT and 99 are possible and it is possible BB is taking the same attitude of WA/WB as we are...we just happen to have a better pp before the river. AJ is less likely as he called a raise and kept betting into a persistent caller with essentially 1 over and a gut-shot...if he is not a great player ok, but I would put it into less likely rather than more likely. K9 would fit this situation and does have to be a concern, but based on mathmatical probability against all hands, it is relatively low.

IMHO, this guy is VERY likely to have Kx excluding 9 and is sitting on trips. I think if we are calling him down and then make the str8, we need to try to capitalize with some type of raise on the River, and a call if he pushes.

Now, please be clear...I am not suggesting that we should have always called down to the river (after all, by the same logic, he is likely sitting on trips), but if we decide to go that far, I just have to believe we should try to squeeze out one more betting round (i.e. raise and let him call). After all, that is the true power of position, to be able to make decisions based on more information...I just have to think a great majority of the time we are ahead here and with the way the betting has gone, I don't think the BB is going to be in any hurry to lay this down.

Fammy

freeucm · #4 08-30-2007, 08:45 PM

This is puke.