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#1
08-30-2007, 05:53 AM
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I know he has a set
SB is a 16/13/5 TAG over ~150 hands. MP is a 68/20 fish who gets his stack in light so I wanted to be in a hand with him in position with implied odds. CO is an unimpressive TAGish player trying to isolate most likely.
FWIW, MP stacked me within the last couple orbits when I got it in on the flop w/ the NFD + overcard. I'm usually just raising and getting it in on this flop, but what am I really ahead of here other than a smaller FD? Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter) SB: $99.00 BB: $43.15 UTG: $147.15 MP: $305.45 CO: $114.00 beachbum (BTN): $98.50 Preflop: beachbum is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players) UTG folds, MP calls $1.00, <font color="red">CO raises to $4.50</font>, beachbum calls $4.50, SB calls $4.00, BB folds, MP calls $3.50 Flop: ($19) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 Players) <font color="red">SB bets $14.00</font>, 2 folds, beachbum calls $14.00 Turn: ($47) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">SB bets $58.00</font>, beachbum folds Pot Size: $105.00 ($2.30 Rake) 
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#4
08-30-2007, 07:08 AM
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Re: I know he has a set
[ QUOTE ]
wow.. not raising flop = disaster id get it in on the flop and be happy with it [/ QUOTE ] I dont agree. He leads into 4 people. If we raise here and get it in, we're behind close to always. We could get a flush draw to fold too, which would be terrible.
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#5
08-30-2007, 07:11 AM
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Re: I know he has a set
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] wow.. not raising flop = disaster id get it in on the flop and be happy with it [/ QUOTE ] I dont agree. He leads into 4 people. If we raise here and get it in, we're behind close to always. We could get a flush draw to fold too, which would be terrible. [/ QUOTE ] i think the defination of terrible is if a flushdraw fires the turn and we fold the nutflushdraw......... i think i just get it in on the flop.....
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#6
08-30-2007, 07:55 AM
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Re: I know he has a set
[ QUOTE ]
i think the defination of terrible is if a flushdraw fires the turn and we fold the nutflushdraw......... i think i just get it in on the flop..... [/ QUOTE ] I pretty much agree w/ this. This is one of the best boards for your hand. Also, despite SB's nitty stats, he is going to have a worse draw here sometimes, and you do have outs against a set. It's probably pretty close between getting all in on the flop and folding. I guess it depends on the degree to which you are "variance averse".
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#7
08-30-2007, 08:07 AM
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Re: I know he has a set
I'd raise this flop, and once you do you can't fold obv. Sure there's a pretty strong possibility that he has a set but we have such good equity here and we can't make a good enough assumption relatively readless based on only one street of betting.
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#9
08-30-2007, 08:14 AM
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Re: I know he has a set
Well the thing is, in general, folding your aces too often is a much bigger leak than getting it in too often. Same goes for spots like this. If OP has a really good read or gut feeling then he should go with that. But then the hand becomes read based and the thread close to pointless. All we can do is give a good line in a standard situation.
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#10
08-30-2007, 08:22 AM
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Re: I know he has a set
The only spot I'm re-raising this is preflop. If you suspect that CO is isolating the limper, you are in a great position to steal this pot, (with a decent hand).
And as played I'm never raising this flop. As pepper123 said, we don't have to get our stack in everytime we flop a big draw. I think that we have low FE(he is never leading into 3 people w/o a hand that is weaker than ours) in this hand and getting it in on this flop is just spew. You are getting great odds for calling on flop. Turn is a fold
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