stacking off w/ second pair - flame away

[schwza]

Poker Stars
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$2/$4 Blinds
6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $511.00
Hero (BB): $624.40
UTG: $386.00
MP: $389.30
CO: $121.00
BTN: $513.60

Preflop: Hero is dealt 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
4 folds, SB calls $2.00, <font color="red">Hero raises to $16.00</font>, SB calls $12.00

Flop: ($32) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $24.00</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $80.00</font>, Hero calls $56.00

Turn: ($192) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $134.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $528.40</font>,

villain has 281 left after the bet. he is 17/11 in 400 hands. don't remember any other reads/history, so we probably haven't been tangling much.

[olof86]

and you are raising turn because..?

[danjohncochane]

why are u bluffing against a 17/11 when he is showing mega strenght??
This is all wrong.

[jpsnow]

His range is pretty small here.

[jfish]

[ QUOTE ]
and you are raising turn because..?

[/ QUOTE ]

[schwza]

ok, may as well post my thoughts now.

what are some possible hands that have me beat on the turn?

33: definitely consistent with his line
88: pretty consistent with his line, but i'd usually expect a raise preflop.
AJ: possible, but will usually raise preflop. also, i'm not sure if he would play AJ this fast on the flop/turn.
worse J: very unlikely imo that he plays this fast on flop/turn
J8: i'd expect him to slowdown on the turn since he's behind overpairs now

the only really likely hand is 33, and 88 has some chance of being played this way, but that's very few hands because there are only one 33 and one 88 left.

on the other hand, i think he shows up with a draw a decent amount. obviously he won't play a draw this fast every time, but he will sometimes. it's blind vs blind, i have a reasonably aggro image, etc. also, there a lot of different draws that he can have. T9 and a bunch of different reasonable flush draws. also, there are a lot of flush draws that come with a gutshot, which would make him more likely to play fast.

the main point is that there are a lot of draws that could be played this way and very few made hands. so even though he's significantly more likely to take this line with 33 than with QThh, the fact that there are so many more QThh-type hands that it means you'll see a draw a decent amount of the time.

[ipokeder]

so he had QTh?

nh

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
so he had QTh?

nh

[/ QUOTE ]

no, he had 88.

[ikestoys]

not sure if you have an edge here, your either drawing dead or slightly ahead

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
not sure if you have an edge here, your either drawing dead or slightly ahead

[/ QUOTE ]

if he just has the nut flush draw or a low flush then i'm crushing him. if he has QThh then i'm 61%, and folding when you're 61% is pretty bad.

Board: Jh 8d 3h 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.636% 38.64% 00.00% 17 0.00 { QhTh }
Hand 1: 61.364% 61.36% 00.00% 27 0.00 { Ac8h }