Fun EV calculation problem. Hooray!

[swede554]

From Stars $109 25k grnt. 2nd hour about 180 people left, top 45 pay.

Didn't post this in High Stakes because this is not an advanced strategy question, it's more of a straightforward villain's opening/calling range vs. my pushing range problem.

MP1 is standard TAG, more aggressive in late position, tighter up front. I estimate he opens about 9% of his hands from MP1, or 66+, ATs+, AJo, and some random SC's like JTs, T9s, 98s. Given that what's my optimal pushing range? I did some calculations and I have some thoughts but I want to see what you guys have to say first.



PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP2 (t17976)
MP3 (t6355)
CO (t22020)
Hero (t4935)
SB (t8958)
BB (t4225)
UTG (t6792)
UTG+1 (t2984)
MP1 (t10540)

Preflop: Hero is Button with x, x.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t800</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t4910</font>...

[markbris]

My calculations went something like this, I set his calling range at TT+,AQs+,AQo+ so that was about 50% of his raising range so I figured you get called about half the time. This meant the equity u pick up from the 50% times that he folds is like 625 chips, and so then playing around with ranges I figured you need to be 36% against his range to make this play profitable. Which means a range of something like 66+,A7s+,A5s,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo is the correct pushing range to make this play profitable. It probably should be tighter than this tho to make it actually worth it. What do you think?

[swede554]

[ QUOTE ]
This meant the equity u pick up from the 50% times that he folds is like 625 chips

[/ QUOTE ]
What do you mean by this? The times he folds we win 1475 450(blinds)+225(antes)+800(his raise).


[ QUOTE ]
66+,A7s+,A5s,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo

[/ QUOTE ]
This range is way to wide imo.



This is what I think. He opens 9% of his hands in MP1.
(66+, ATs+, AJo, and some random SC's like JTs, T9s, 98s.)

When I push he has to call 4100 to win 6375, or about 1-1.5, so he should call if his hand has about 40% equity vs. my range.

If my perceived pushing range is 77+, AQ+ which I think is pretty close to being right, he should call w/ 88+, AQ+.

That's about 6% of his hands so I think I'll get called 2/3 times.

If I push 99, which has 41% equity vs. his calling range:

33% of the time I win 1475.
66% of the time
I win 5575 x 41% = +2286
I lose 4900 x 59% = -2891
= -605

1475 x 33% = +487
-605 x 66% = -399
= +88

So given that all these assumptions are correct, I need about 40% equity vs. his calling range.

AQs has 40% equity vs. his calling range so I think that's the cutoff on my profitable pushing range. AQo only has about 36.5% equity so that's a fold.

So my profitable pushing range given my stack is 99+, AQs+ which initially I thought was really tight, but I think vs. a TAG EP raise we'll get called pretty often hence we need to tigthen up significantly.

Thoughts?

[markbris]

Yea, oops. I didn't include antes. I got 625 from 1350 from the blinds and his raise that u win, multiplied by the 50% of the time you get called. Yours looks good though, I will look over it more later when I get home.