($27) Tough spot with 88 on the bubble

[taipan168]

Opp had been pwning the bubble with the big stack, open shoving at every opportunity and shoving over standard raises (from the other players of course!).

According to SNGPT calling this is +0.4% EV if opp shoves 100%, if I reduce this to 94% this is neutral EV. However, are there other considerations to take into account here, like the fact that I may not get a better spot if this guy keeps on shoving? I guess I might be able to wait until I get a spot to open shove with decent cards into opp's BB, but can we count on these spots coming up?

Poker Stars No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t200/t400 (Ante: t25)
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t1705
Button: t6455
SB: t2025
Hero: t3315

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is BB with 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises all-in t6430</font>, SB folds, Hero ????

[billybeartku]

easy fold, you can't call without AA or KK here.

[PokahPokah]

super super super easy fold

[taipan168]

[ QUOTE ]
easy fold, you can't call without AA or KK here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Did you run this through SNGPT before responding? Are you seriously folding QQ in this spot, if opp is shoving 100% then calling with QQ is +4.4% EV, and calling with QQ only becomes -EV if opp shoves only 17% (which from previous hands we know he isn't).

I agree that AKs/AKo is an instafold in this spot though.

[Fammy]

Have to agree with taipan...

I think the equity rule for AA and KK only applies if opponents are miniscule stacked...I may be wrong, but this is what I believe the numbers bear out.

Fammy

[Dr_Wonderful]

I would call here but I'm beginning to think that I need SNGPT. If you were given a chance to do some damage on the other stacks I might fold but considering that you are having a tough time getting any bets in you may not have a better opportunity. On the other hand with him open pushing so often you're very likely to place and with your stack could even sneak into 2nd then battle it out with a depleted stack against villain heads up. This is a very tough hand for me, especially since I am lacking on the math of the situation. I still say that a call is good.

[Mench]

real easy fold, and hes not shoving 100%.

[Josem]

the muppets in this thread who are saying "easy fold" are retarded and not answering the question posed.

this is not a question of folding/calling. this is a question of what the opponent's range is.


if the villain's range is pushing 100%, and you have done the ICM math correctly (and I have no reason to doubt you) then this is something you should call. incidentally, ICM slightly undervalues big stacks, so this further encourages a call.



of course, if someone doubts that villain is pushing 100%, what range do they give the villain? do you really think someone pushing 59o here is folding 52o or 23o?

[PokahPokah]

[ QUOTE ]
the muppets in this thread who are saying "easy fold" are retarded and not answering the question posed.

[/ QUOTE ]
you need to chill out

[Josem]

[ QUOTE ]
you need to chill out

[/ QUOTE ]

this is serious business!