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Poker math related to downswings and ptbb/100
It has been a long time since I have done any calculus, so I cannot remember how to set up the equation to predict how plausible it would be for this to happen, but here goes...
I have a friend, who I believe is a marginal winner at 100 and 200$ NL full ring. He has recently been in a wicked downswing, and I am pretty sure he is not playing anywhere near his A-game. But he refuses to believe that the downswing is a result of anything but an awful series of beats. Can anybody who knows how to do this calculation plug these #s in for me and try to help me figure out how to explain that this downswing is a result of bad PLAY as well as bad cards? I dont know his exact #s because he does not use pokertracker. I can fairly well estimate them though. SD = 30ptbb per 100 hands This is a fairly reasonable expectation for a tight aggressive style player. He is a bit more passive preflop than I am, so this number could be as high as 35 or 40. PTBB/100 = 1 I am completely unsure of this. I know he is a winner long term, but not by a whole lot. He puts in a TON of hands though, so this should be a pretty good guess. Approximately 50,0000 hands played in august. Down 30 buyins, or 1500ptbbs. so our numbers are SD = 30 per 100hands Win Rate = 1ptbb/100 Actual earn = -1500ptbbs Hands played = 50,000 Looking for what % chance a +EV player could have a downswing this massive. If we need more information, let me know. Also, if someone happens to be bored and would like to plug these #s in for me. At what win rate does a downswing of this magnitude become a reasonable expectation? Say within 3SDs. Thanks for the help [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] |
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