(razz) Value bet or spew?

[RustyBrooks]

Villain is loose and aggressive so his 3rd street raise is not that indicative. Maybe I should raise preflop but I thought this hand would be 3 handed at worst due to my position and I didn't like the 3 aces being out, plus my worst card is up so I'll probably get re-raised some of the time.

On 6th I'm thinking he probably caught a decent hand, since he called 4th with a brick. There's some chance he paired, of course, and some chance that his hand is not as good as mine, maybe he has a pretty smooth 8. My "logic" if you want to call it that is that I am ahead sometimes, but I'm not going to love betting the river if he checks and I can't necessarily count on him to bet the river behind. I think this raise might convince a slightly better hand to check the river and if I hit one of my miniscule number of outs to improve I can probably squeeze another bet out of this hand.

I guess this is actually a way ahead/way behind situation and maybe I should call 6th and bet the river if checked to?

I have some history on the opponent but not notes which means that I probably have a lot of observed hands but not that many playing him.

Am I calling 7th no matter what?

Razz ($0.25/$0.50), Ante $0.05, Bring-In $0.10 (converter)

3rd Street - (1.40 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]__completes
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]__calls
Seat 4: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]__brings-in__folds
Seat 5: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]__folds
Seat 6: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]__folds
Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]__folds
Seat 8: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]__folds

4th Street - (1.40 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]__calls
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]__bets

5th Street - (0.70 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]__calls
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]__bets

6th Street - (0.70 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]__bets__calls
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]__raises

Edited to show the action

[kerze]

Rusty the action on each street is missing

[RustyBrooks]

Well that's weird, I didn't notice that. We, uh, checked it down, yeah. nah, I'll edit and add it in.

[RustyBrooks]

Hmm, can't edit, must have been too long.

3rd:
Folds to Seat 2 who completes, Hero calls, all else fold

4th:
Hero bets, villain calls

5th:
Hero bets, villain calls

6th:
villain bets, hero raises, villain calls

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
My "logic" if you want to call it that is that I am ahead sometimes, but I'm not going to love betting the river if he checks

[/ QUOTE ]

That's your problem. After calling sixth (I'd raise with a 75, though), just bet the river if he checks. A 7 low is a nice hand [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[kerze]

On 6th ,do we think that villain has anything worse than
(8- 8- A Q 3) 5 ? Does villain call 5th with anything worst than a draw to a 8. I can see him betting 6th even if he paired the 5 because his outs are pretty live. Also, we knows we at best have a made 76 and are at best drawing to a 6. He also knows it is unlikely he have an A down.


Villain is a small favorite here assuming he has two hole cards under 8 that don't pair the A or 3 but possibly pair the 5.

http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/s...amp;h4=&h5=

So based on that I just call 6th (although if I was playing quickly I might instinctively raise)

If we call 6th and he bets 7th, I probably raise if have hit the case A or a 3 and otherwise just call and hope he has a 8 high or worse.

If we call 6th and he checks 7th, I bet out regardless, as to me that indicates that he probably doesn't have better than a 8. If he raises our bet then I probably call (although I'm not loving it if we still have 76 - even our 65 is not that great in a check/raise situation).

[Praxising]

[ QUOTE ]
6th Street - (0.70 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]__bets__calls
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]__raises

[/ QUOTE ]
Not reraising on 6th here makes me think he paired. He sees your cards, sees you very likely have a made hand. If he hit a 5 or 6, I would have expected him to reraise. He'll bet first on the river right, so he can't be trying to trap you into betting. But then I wonder, considering the 3rd st action and his position, if it was a steal attempt gone very wrong. (I once mis-clicked my way into a three-way when I meant to fold with an awful hand. I won it accidentally when I caught and they checked and...well, you know how that goes. I also once folded what was surely the nuts by accident. Never play tired.)

So, looks like he might be drawing to a monster hand, but I wouldn't be convinced he had it, yet. And I would call 7th no matter what. It's one more bet, you can't fold now. Then I'd hold my breath....

[RustyBrooks]

I don't know, I think calling a checkraise on the river might be awful, it takes a lot of balls to bluff and he can see my board. I have not seen too many cases where someone check-raises on the end without behind able to beat the best possible hand his opponent could have (which is a 6)

I did the math, and I did see that I'm about even or a small dog on 6th, if he has 8- 8- in the hole. And yeah, I think he probably does, and I think there's a *tiny* chance that he paired on 6th but perversely I bet he'd have 3bet if he had. Almost all the hands I tried, I'm either way way ahead or way way behind, and I guess that's why it's about even in the end. So a call was probably right.

I don't know whether he gives me credit for a 7 on 6th. I'm in autobet territory on 4th and 5th and I could be paired or have a crappy card in the hole myself. I don't think he called 4th hoping I'd brick and he'd hit and if he did I don't think he'd call again hoping for the same, but who knows.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know, I think calling a checkraise on the river might be awful

[/ QUOTE ]

it 100% depends on the game/player but at decent stakes, I (tend to) fist pump call

[Praxising]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know whether he gives me credit for a 7 on 6th. I'm in autobet territory on 4th and 5th and I could be paired or have a crappy card in the hole myself. I don't think he called 4th hoping I'd brick and he'd hit and if he did I don't think he'd call again hoping for the same, but who knows.

[/ QUOTE ]
Rusty, you and I know I am no expert, but I am going to give you some advice: it's poker, you just can't be sure. Stop torturing yourself. You are going to lose. Lose, lose, lose. Losing is fine, it's followed by winning.

I don't know what the others will say but Monday-morning quarterbacking comes to mind here. You don't have that much time online. So, I have a rule. Believe it or not, I look for reasons to fold on 5th. If I can't find one and I make it to 7th, I'm not folding and I'm usually betting or raising. If you want to, bet. If he raises, call. I raise on the river with crapola all the time to get people to fold better hands. And they do, quite often. If he checks and you want to check it down, why not? So, you might lose a bet. You also might save one. It's a bet - let it go. The hand was fine.