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#1
08-29-2007, 12:15 AM
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Probability of finishing in a particular position
Because stars decided to suck and crash, I need some help.
I need to know the probability that a particular person finishes in each of 6 possible finishing positions based on his stack size. Here is the relevant info: Hero = 32521 Other players 1 = 71507 2 = 69688 3 = 39370 4 = 34336 5 = 22578 So, given the relevant chip stacks, what is the probability that Hero will finish 6th? 5th? 4th? 3rd? 2nd? 1st? And more importantly, how do you figure it out? I'll need to do this several times. Thanks in advance for your help. Sherman 
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#2
08-29-2007, 12:32 AM
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Re: Probability of finishing in a particular position
See the Independent Chip Model.
If that fits (and no other tools seem appropriate), you can implement it yourself, or search for code people have posted here. I linked to a fast way to calculate the ICM for even 100 players a couple of times in this forum in the past 10 days.
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#3
08-29-2007, 12:37 AM
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Re: Probability of finishing in a particular position
Yeah. I know about the ICM calculators. The problem is that ICM assumes there is $. I don't care about the $. I need to know the probabilities that are calculated before the $. Anyhow, thanks for the link. I'll read the thread.
Sherman
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#4
08-29-2007, 02:03 AM
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Re: Probability of finishing in a particular position
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah. I know about the ICM calculators. The problem is that ICM assumes there is $. I don't care about the $. I need to know the probabilities that are calculated before the $. [/ QUOTE ] If you knew about the ICM, you should have said that, and whether it is what you are looking for. The calculator I linked in the other thread gives 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place probabilities, not just the equity. The algorithms and code I posted earlier give all probabilities predicted by the ICM.
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#5
08-29-2007, 03:12 PM
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Re: Probability of finishing in a particular position
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Yeah. I know about the ICM calculators. The problem is that ICM assumes there is $. I don't care about the $. I need to know the probabilities that are calculated before the $. [/ QUOTE ] If you knew about the ICM, you should have said that, and whether it is what you are looking for. The calculator I linked in the other thread gives 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place probabilities, not just the equity. The algorithms and code I posted earlier give all probabilities predicted by the ICM. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah I found it all. Thanks Phzon. I actually might have needed to work it out for as many as 8 players (OMG!), which is why I came here rather than just using the standard ICM Calc. Anyhow, b/c of the nature of the contest, I was able to solve most of the problems w/out getting too deep into the ICM calcs. Appreciate it. Sherman
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#6
08-29-2007, 04:05 PM
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Re: Probability of finishing in a particular position
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah. I know about the ICM calculators. The problem is that ICM assumes there is $. I don't care about the $. I need to know the probabilities that are calculated before the $. Anyhow, thanks for the link. I'll read the thread. [/ QUOTE ] In a pinch, with one of those calculators, you can just set the purse so that the equity is the probability: 1st place: $0, 2nd place: $1, 3rd place: $0... will give you the probability (in dollars) of each player hitting second.
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Linear Mode
