$22T ATo bubble with 3 shorties, I have 2bb

[JROK777]

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t300/t600
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t2060
Button: t520
SB: t9020
Hero: t1900

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button calls all-in t520</font>, SB calls t300 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t1420)</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t1720, 2 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: t1560, Sidepot 1: t160)
SB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t1720, 2 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: t1560, Sidepot 1: t160)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets t2000</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero calls.

I thought it was best to have 2 hands trying to outdraw shorty. I called the turn because we have to come in 3rd place to bust here. I figured shorty might be able to hit cards that I blocked on river if I folded. Would you play this hand any differently?

[Scotty_12]

I would fold. You cant come in 3rd place, and therefore cant bust if you fold. I dont think you are beating SB very often here, unless he is a total idiot bluffing into an empty sidepot (which you do see sometimes in the lower limits)

[Pocketbear]

Wow, calling a bet that could bust you out without even a pair? Really bad, I think. I'm folding this all day long.

[JROK777]

The only way hero to bust is for Shorty to beat BigStck and Hero. There's no other way to lose. If big stack wins and shorty beats me, we get 3rd.

[Scotty_12]

I understand that, but what if shorty has KK and bigstack has JQ or something. Then it is GG hero. This is an easy fold IMHO

[BicVicTheQuick]

Sorry man! You can argue as much as you want but this is an easy fold!!

[ymu]

[ QUOTE ]
I understand that, but what if shorty has KK and bigstack has JQ or something. Then it is GG hero. This is an easy fold IMHO

[/ QUOTE ]
The question is, how likely is that?

Big stack doesn't have a big incentive not to bluff into a dry sidepot - he doesn't do badly if the bubble survives this hand. It's also rash to assume he understands implicit collusion, or when it makes sense and when it doesn't - although to be fair, he did let us see a free flop.

If he's betting with a hand, and believes implicit collusion is right in this spot, then he should believe that he can beat shortie with what he has. If he's bluffing with little to nothing, it's a lot more dangerous, but at least we have a decent shot at making chips in a sidepot that's bigger than our original stack. What equity do we have against shortie's range if biggie is full of it?

I'm not sure there are any +EV options here.

~1/3 of our stack is in by default. If we check behind and push any flop, we spew equity to shortie by getting biggie to fold a small amount of the time. If we wait for biggie to bet, can we fold with 2.2BB when we're in the SB next hand with zero FE pretty much guaranteed (how have biggie and UTG been playing the bubble - any chance of a successful push next hand?)

Calling this may be less -$EV than folding it, but I don't know if we're short enough here for that to be true.

"Check behind but commit the rest regardless if biggie bets on any street" has to be better than a preflop shove because it might just save your last BBs if biggie checks down. I don't know if "check behind and play fit or fold if biggie bets" is better still - that's the tricky bit.

Sorry this is a bit rambly. More maths to be done. It might also be useful to estimate how short you would need to be for the A high call to be clearly the best move.

I'll have a stab at it if I have the motivation after I've slept, but I think Shillx is needed for this - he's way smart on these situations.

[Shillx]

If you assume that they are 50/50 you have 21.3% equity if you fold.

Call &amp; win: 33.7%
Win side: 24.9%

You have almost 22% pot equity against 2 random hands...

$EV = .218*.337 + .391*.200 + .391*.442*.249 - .213 = -1.8%

So you have to put him on [censored] to consider calling here. Like if he turned up K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] it would be correct to call and it is ++EV if he has a hand like J4o as you are basically racing for the scoop since the side is in the bag.

So yeah fold this one quickly. He has to be betting worse then a random hand and while you will sometimes see a semi-bluff, you will usually be drawing to a small part of the pot. It is about +1.5% to call if he has a flush draw but it is -6.6% if he has Qx so you can do the math there.

[ymu]

Shillx - thanks.

How short (approx) do you think we'd have to be to call because your SB spot is more -EV? Or am I thinking about this completely the wrong way? (Quite likely [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img])

I did write most of my first post before realising the title meant 2BB after posting, not before - so I figured a lot of it won't apply to the ~3.2BB stack and did a clumsy edit job. But am I right in thinking that this call could become correct if we were a bit shorter because of the [censored] situation in the next hand (depending on reads and how the other stacks are playing the bubble)?