Peel question

NinaWilliams · #1 08-24-2007, 05:17 PM

Villain = unknown. Do I have enough to peel here?

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $3/$6
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, Hero raises, CO folds, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (7.5SB, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets

thepizzlefosho · #2 08-24-2007, 05:23 PM

getting 8.5-1 you need at least 4 outs if you give yourself some implied odds (which the hand and board don't really look like you have enough). I think you can at best give yourself 3 outs combined between the A and the 8 (discounting them both for domination) and at best 1.5 outs for the backdoor flush draw. So we probably can't give you credit for more than 4.5 or 5 outs, and even there it is pretty neutral EV assuming you don't have good implied odds. The fact that you actually probably have really bad RIO makes this a pretty easy fold.

cliff notes: NO

yourface · #3 08-24-2007, 05:35 PM

I'd estimate your outs at around 5
it'd be nice to be in position but I still peel this one time

Oink · #4 08-24-2007, 05:42 PM

I agree with pizzle. Its a fold for me.

If his range is 66, A9s, AJo, KQ you have at least 3 pair outs against all hands but QQ, AQ and AA, 15 combos, and 6 pair outs vs 66 and 77, 12 combos.

So on average you have less than 3 pair outs.

Bdfd is 1.5 outs.

Runner runner paired board vs better Ax hands is worth something as well. I dunno how much its worth but if the board pairs you pick up a lot of chopping out vs better Ax.

One thing that pizzle doesnt mention but something thats quite important tho is the probability that he checks behind the turn. There is a lot of hands like AJ and AT or low pps that will check behind high card turns which didnt help them.

Finally I want to add that the Q is really bad for you since it KQ caught up. If the top card was a J or lower I would peel this flop without giving it much thought.

yourface · #5 08-24-2007, 05:45 PM

if a calling station like oink doesn't peel here I will have to reconsider [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

oink would you peel it in position?

Oink · #6 08-24-2007, 06:00 PM

Definetely peel in position

BTW there is also a bd wheel draw but thats not worth a lot.

This one is closer than I thought.

I am also trying to figure out the value of the board pairing.

- If say a 3 turns then Hero has 2 3's, 3 5's, 3 Q's and 4 K's to a chop vs AJ thats 12 picked up chop outs worth 6. Against AT hero will pick up 16 chop outs (4 J's on top).

- If a 5 turns its the same

- If a Q turns hero will have 3 3's, 3 5's and 4 K's to a chop vs AJ and 3 3's, 3 5's, 4 J's and 4 K's. Thats 10 chopping outs vs AJ and 14 chopping outs vs AT.

AJ and AT is of course just a small part of his range but if you do the same against A9s it quite a lot of outs for a chop that hero can pick up if the board pairs on the turn.

I would think these paired board outs are worth somewhere between 0.5 and 1 out.

pegboy · #7 08-24-2007, 06:00 PM

I fold this easy. But I'm the anti-oink when it comes to folding and peeling. The critical variable for me is the fact that we have no read. Which means he has no read. So he may be a poor player but if he's any good at all he knows he needed enough to 3bet a stranger. I'd say that tightens his range. Too much credit? Perhaps. But I hate chasing these down only to see his PFR never go double digit.

milesdyson · #8 08-24-2007, 06:06 PM

"The critical variable for me is the fact that we have no read. Which means he has no read. So he may be a poor player but if he's any good at all he knows he needed enough to 3bet a stranger. I'd say that tightens his range."

you're not accounting for conditional probability. he's more likely to have a wide range simply because he 3-bet this time.

Oink · #9 08-24-2007, 06:07 PM

Thought more about this hand

Lets just be conservative and say.

Pair outs = 2.5
bdfd = 1.5
bdwd = 0.3
bd chop outs = 0.7
possibility of free river > 0

This means Hero has at least 5 outs. This is prolly a peel for me - even with the Q out there.

thepizzlefosho · #10 08-24-2007, 06:18 PM

RIO anyone?

I think out of position this is a fold. And pf 3-bettors usually fire the turn.

I really think you can find better spots to peel light than this one. I think Oink's analysis is solid, but he wants to find a peel so he might be taking this a little to far [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]