2/4 - Good draw w/2 all ins in front

[People_Mover]

FullTiltPoker Game #3352364199: Table Calico Pines - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 17:52:51 ET - 2007/08/24
Seat 1: Seraphim_nu ($429.60)
Seat 2: nsewell4 ($396)
Seat 3: Tight as a Kite ($285.05)
Seat 4: ASSBANGAH ($496.40)
Seat 5: elidhfl ($448.45)
Seat 6: Casey-Sparky ($141.40)
Seat 7: dajmipare ($400)
Seat 8: budco33 ($286.50)
Seat 9: Hero ($510.10)
nsewell4 posts the small blind of $2
Tight as a Kite posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Ah Qh]
ASSBANGAH folds
elidhfl raises to $12
Casey-Sparky folds
budco33 folds
Hero calls $12
Seraphim_nu folds
nsewell4 folds
Tight as a Kite calls $8
*** FLOP *** [4c Js Th]
ASSBANGAH stands up
Tight as a Kite checks
elidhfl bets $16
Hero calls $16
Tight as a Kite calls $16
*** TURN *** [4c Js Th] [7h]
Tight as a Kite checks
elidhfl bets $36
Hero calls $36
Tight as a Kite raises to $257.05, and is all in
elidhfl calls $221.05
Hero has 15 seconds left to act

[yabastid]

converter would be nice, reads would be nice, reraising PF would be better . . .
looks like a fold as I think elidhfl
will probably fold now that his TPTK/overpair is no good and Tight as a Kite has a set so a couple of your outs are dead. But wtf if you want gambool.

[AE6]

nm, i'm dumb

[toucan]

Like AE6 said this looks to basically be a math's question.

221.05/(636.10 + 221.05) = 0.258

so getting around 3:1 on your money, but elidhfl still has $163.40 left if you call which you'd hope he would commit on the river if you hit.

You have 10 outs to the nuts. 10/42 = 0.238

But then the 4h and Jh may also be good. 12/42 = 0.285

Of course an ace or a queen might also be good, though you'd have to think this unlikely given the action.

So basically you're getting around 3:1 on the call (25.8%), and likely make the best hand either 23.8% or 28.5% of the time, so it's close but perhaps the fact that there is another $163 to be won if you hit sways this towards a call.

I hope the maths is right, but it's 4.20am here so 'meh' if it isn't

[Nielsio]

This is a math + range question and it's probably a fold.

Don't really see the point of this thread.