3-6NL Did I get Taken to School?

frogger23 · #1 08-23-2007, 02:08 AM

I recently opened a stars account and am building up my online role playing 3-6 NL. This session I've been playing like 20/18, and playing pretty aggressively post flop. Villain is running at 19/16/4.7, though his aggression goes down dramatically after the flop. He seems solid, and is up a lot over a small sample in my database.

He's been 3 betting me very frequently pre flop, so I think there is almost no chance he can have a higher pair/set. I think my flop and turn play is totally standard, but I was a little lost on the river. I've paid off more than my share of 1 card straights, and obviously don't want to do so here, but thought betting made sense as he's checking behind any made hand that he's not turning into a bluff, but might get suspicious that I'm firing the river and call me with whatever pair/two pair he got to the river with. This approach is obviously flawed if he's going to bluff raise the river with any frequency.

I guess my real question is, how often are solid regulars at this level bluff raising this river? As far as timing tells, I bet the river after a few seconds of deliberation, fairly standard for me, and he pushed after maybe 5 seconds.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($1527)
SB ($594)
BB ($1086.55)
UTG ($428.75)
MP ($190.30)
Hero ($1073)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to $22, Button calls $22, 2 folds.

Flop: ($53) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $44, Button calls $44.

Turn: ($141) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $115, Button calls $115.

River: ($371) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $250, Button raises to $1346

McShove · #2 08-23-2007, 02:19 AM

easy fold

jfish · #3 08-23-2007, 02:24 AM

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easy fold

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frogger23 · #4 08-23-2007, 02:30 AM

If I checked the river how often will I induce a bet from a hand I have beat? Also, I think this probably is an easy fold against most, but how often am I going to show up with the straight in this spot and be able to call his river raise? I think the answer in my case is not very often...If villain had a back door flush draw (maybe with a 5,6,or 7) what would you think of his pushing here?

duh · #5 08-23-2007, 04:22 AM

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If I checked the river how often will I induce a bet from a hand I have beat?

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A thinking villan, or one who loves to make thin valuebets, could be valuebetting the river with 2pair+.. However, the only possible 2 pair he could have is TJ. All other 2pairs/sets raise flop or turn.

His most likely hand is a pair + 9 or 99.

Colombo · #6 08-23-2007, 04:24 AM

All his made hands are gonna check for free showdown, and he can't really have a missed draw here. So b/f > c/c since he calls with many hands that he checks behind with.

duh · #7 08-23-2007, 04:32 AM

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So b/f > c/c since he calls with many hands that he checks behind with.

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catcher193 · #8 08-23-2007, 06:29 AM

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All his made hands are gonna check for free showdown, and he can't really have a missed draw here. So b/f > c/c since he calls with many hands that he checks behind with.

[/ QUOTE ]pretty much sums this up perfectly