$100k qualifier absolute--KK misplay?

ooinsight · #1 02-28-2006, 02:45 AM

This was about 20 hands into the tourney, too early to have real stats on these two. I recognize getting all in with 2 players early isn't often a good decision but I don't see a fold happening here.
Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t15/t30
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t920
UTG+1: t1425
MP1: t1395
MP2: t1375
MP3: t3670
CO: t1925
Button: t1355
SB: t1435
Hero: t1400

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG calls t30, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls t30, MP2 raises to t120, MP3 calls t120, 3 folds, Hero raises to t450, 2 folds, MP2 raises all-in t1375, MP3 calls t1255, Hero raises all-in t1400, MP3 calls t25.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t4250, 1 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: t4200, Sidepot 1: t50)

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t4250, 1 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: t4200, Sidepot 1: t50)

River: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t4250, 1 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: t4200, Sidepot 1: t50)

Results:
Final pot: t4250
MP3 Shows As Kd
Hero Shows Kc Kh
MP2 Shows Ah Qs

Max Weinberg · #2 02-28-2006, 02:50 AM

Hell, you've practically got odds even if he showed he had aces.

You probably lost to AQ/AQs/QQ though, which blows.

ooinsight · #3 02-28-2006, 06:46 AM

AQ-> rivered the last king in the deck to make the straight.

Rooger · #4 02-28-2006, 08:06 AM

Hand 1: 31.8670 % 29.00% 02.87% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 36.2659 % 34.40% 01.87% { KK }
Hand 3: 31.8670 % 29.00% 02.87% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

I'm willing to take that chance to triple up, given the pot odds. There's a long way to the money, we need to accumulate chips. And they're range could easily be way broader, if we only open for a few more hands:

Hand 1: 23.9893 % 21.48% 02.51% { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 52.0214 % 50.35% 01.67% { KK }
Hand 3: 23.9893 % 21.48% 02.51% { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }

Another time, please don't write the result - it makes the comments far more results-oriented. And in general, I don't think I ever fold KK with 50xBB. Very rarely with 100xBB, and only if I have a very good read on my opponent.
You got in as a 73% fave - outdraws sucks, but happen.

grafyx · #5 02-28-2006, 08:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Another time, please don't write the result

[/ QUOTE ]

What good is a bad beat story without the results?

Rooger · #6 02-28-2006, 08:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Another time, please don't write the result

[/ QUOTE ]

What good is a bad beat story without the results?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, then it's just a bad story. At least that's better.

But actually, I meant it. As the post is now, it clearly looks like a bad beat story, but if the hands hand been removed, people might post how they wouldn't 'risk their tournament lives' to the obvious AA and QQ [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Rocco · #7 02-28-2006, 08:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This was about 20 hands into the tourney, too early to have real stats on these two. I recognize getting all in with 2 players early isn't often a good decision but I don't see a fold happening here.

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Why??? Hell, you have the second best hand in Hold'em and a great opportunity to triple up. What's wrong with busting out early? If you lose, just sign up for another tourney and be happy you went out early instead of bubbling three hours later. I'm always happy to shove my stack into the middle if I smell a coinflip during the early levels. I can recommend this article by woodguy about passing up early edges. We're not good enough to do it, you and me!

ooinsight · #8 02-28-2006, 04:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Another time, please don't write the result

[/ QUOTE ]

What good is a bad beat story without the results?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, then it's just a bad story. At least that's better.

But actually, I meant it. As the post is now, it clearly looks like a bad beat story, but if the hands hand been removed, people might post how they wouldn't 'risk their tournament lives' to the obvious AA and QQ [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes sense. Since this is really about PF decision making, it shouldn't be analyzed based on the actual results. Still new to posting on MTT, and of course I did put this hand in BBV when it happened again shortly after.