2/4 - Medium overpair on drawy board

[BearHustler]

Villain is 27/14/1.6 over 179 hands. I checked PT, and he's 24/11/2.5 over 1000 hands. No real postflop read, which would make this much easier. His low AF makes me think this is a fold, the drawy board makes me think it's a push. I don't see calling as an option. Should it be?


Prima Network No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Button ($553.50)
SB ($256.30)
BB ($149.57)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($386.30)</font>
MP ($310.78)
<font color="#C00000">CO ($396.00)</font>

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $4.00.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $18</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO (poster) calls $14, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls $14.

Flop: ($56) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $40</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $110</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ???</font>

[jpsnow]

Ugg I dont like this spot vs this villan

[Montezuma21]

i think this is a fold tbh. i don't think with his passive PF stats (you can't trust AF over such a small sample btw) he's raising less than a combo draw here, adn this is never a bluff/TPTK with BB in the pot and your raising UTG.

[Duck Rabbit]

I think it's a fold. This board nailed his typical cold calling range and even if you are ahead, it's not by much if he has some type of combo draw. You're going to be OOP, and pretty much every card will be a scare card for you on the turn. Without any great read, I'd fold here.

[BearHustler]

Well, I pushed.

He called and showed Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Turn: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

[thejerkface]

Well, you were even money against Q7. In that spot, even money is about the best you can hope for against his range. Definitely fold.

[AE6]

[ QUOTE ]


Turn: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]
rigged.

at any rate, i agree that flop should be a fold. this guy's low agg factor just makes it that much easier