6/12 Live: ATo in a small pot

jesse8888 · #1 08-21-2007, 02:50 PM

Villain is the BB, and my read on him is "kind of random". He laid down a hand on the turn when I check-raised him (I'd turned a boat from the BB) and gave me a dirty look. Shortly thereafter he asked to see my hand as I was mucking on the river after calling a bet (which he's allowed to do). My hand was TPTK with AQo, which had been outdrawn on the river.

To the hand:

Two limpers in front of me and I limp ATo in the HJ. Button limps as well, SB folds, BB checks. 5 handed to a flop of:

Jd Kh 5d

Checks to me, I check, and the button checks as well. I have the ace of diamonds.

Jd Kh 5d 6d

The BB bets out, and it folds to me. What do I do? Only 3.5 big bets in the pot, and the button already has his cards 2/3rds of the way into the muck.

Past history indicates he might fold if I raise, and my draw is quite monstrous if he doesn't have a made flush.

Scarmiglio · #2 08-21-2007, 03:45 PM

It's marginal, but I would probably peel. Best case is you have all your outs - 9 diamonds, 3 non-diamond queens, and 3 aces - 15 outs. This would give you 1:2 odds with anywhere from 1:3.5 pot odds to 1:5.5 pot odds with implied odds. Worst case he has a flush and you only have 7 outs. This gives you 7 diamonds out of 44 cards or 1:5.3 odds to make a bigger flush with only 1:3.5 pot odds and probably 1:4.5 with implied odds.

He may fold if you raise, but he may also 3-bet. I would rather try to hit my hand and extract some extra value than make a semi-bluff into a possibly made flush. I think that call > fold > raise.

jesse8888 · #3 08-21-2007, 04:19 PM

OK Scarm, another question (others feel free to speak to the original question). Suppose you call. What do you do with the following rivers when he bets at you:

1. Ace
2. Queen
3. Ten
4. King of Diamonds
5. Brick

Lanzalot · #4 08-21-2007, 04:56 PM

Small pot or not, your draw is terrific and I don't think folding is the right move. You could have as many as 18 outs. So the choice is between raising and calling, IMO.

Reasons to raise:

1. Small chance that you could have the best hand in which case a raise may win you the pot right now and villain makes a FTOP mistake. Villain's bet smells like a semi-bluff. Board is fairly live and he could be betting any number of draws that you want him to fold.

2. You can't count on winning two bets on the river b/c a diamond, ace or queen may induce a check from villain and so it's better to get the money in the pot now when you may be a money favorite.

3. Even if he has the flush, it may be a small one (part of the reason he didn't bet the flop?) and you won't get 3-bet. I've seen plenty of low-limit players play small flushes this passively. If the river bricks, check behind UI or weigh a bluff.

4. Weakest reason: may set up a bluff on the river. Seems kind of unlikely b/c V could reasonably deduce that you would have bet the flop with any kind of hand and your recent history indicates he may suspect you of fancy play. Still, a J, 5 or 6 on the river may be bluff outs.

Reason not to raise: A queen or a ten on the river might give him a second-best hand he could bet into you with, allowing you to raise.

Hyperrrprank · #5 08-21-2007, 05:13 PM

Raise it.

Even if you do get 3-bet, your draw is good enough that you can call without feeling too much pain. You're in a situation where you would LOVE if both fold, since your hand still hasn't come in, but you can stomach calling a 3-bet because your draw is strong. The raise is likely to push out a gutshot or marginal made hand, making it more likely you'll take the pot even if you're not ahead now.

Calling only lets you win if you hit your hand. Raising might win immediately, gives you strong footing to bluff the river, and improves your chances overall.

The pot is small, but if you're going to continue strength is better than luck. Your opponents are going to note the small pot size as well and it makes your raise more frightening.

Scarmiglio · #6 08-21-2007, 06:10 PM

1. Ace - Call
2. Queen - Raise
3. Ten - Call
4. King of Diamonds - Raise
5. Brick - Muck it

But that's just me.

Scarmiglio · #7 08-21-2007, 06:23 PM

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Small pot or not, your draw is terrific and I don't think folding is the right move. You could have as many as 18 outs. So the choice is between raising and calling, IMO.

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You're assuming that villain doesn't already have a flush. Many live villains won't bet here without one. Also, 18 outs is very optimistic.

[ QUOTE ]
Reasons to raise:

1. Small chance that you could have the best hand in which case a raise may win you the pot right now and villain makes a FTOP mistake. Villain's bet smells like a semi-bluff. Board is fairly live and he could be betting any number of draws that you want him to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
Villains bet smells like a semi-bluff why? I don't see many live villains getting creative enough to bet any number of draws as you suggest.

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2. You can't count on winning two bets on the river b/c a diamond, ace or queen may induce a check from villain and so it's better to get the money in the pot now when you may be a money favorite.

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Sorry, but this is way off. Getting the money in when you're a favorite? How do you figure that our hand is a favorite? We are behind the vast majority of villains range. Any pair is a favorite over our hand. We have to assume villain is on a draw for this to be right.

[ QUOTE ]
3. Even if he has the flush, it may be a small one (part of the reason he didn't bet the flop?) and you won't get 3-bet. I've seen plenty of low-limit players play small flushes this passively. If the river bricks, check behind UI or weigh a bluff.

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Again, even if he doesn't 3-bet, we're putting money in the pot when WAY behind. This makes no sense. A bluff on a bricked river will NEVER work if he has a baby flush. You're lighting money on fire.

jesse8888 · #8 08-21-2007, 06:30 PM

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Even if you do get 3-bet, your draw is good enough that you can call without feeling too much pain. You're in a situation where you would LOVE if both fold,

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Trust me, button was folding. I think he may have actually acted out of turn before I decided what to do.

So far we've got 2 votes for popping it and 1 for peeling. I wonder what the donkey in the well thinks?

Frond · #9 08-21-2007, 07:01 PM

I raise here in your spot. If he does have a flush he probably won't be 3 betting you here cause he will be afraid of the Ad which you in fact do have. You are obv behind on the turn but your draws are still pretty damn good and did anyone ever consider that the BB may just have a 2 pair hand here since he was in fact in the BB? A hand like K5 or J6 etc? Just a thought.

Scarmiglio · #10 08-21-2007, 07:25 PM

I think you guys are missing the point. It's not about him 3-betting it so much as about putting in money when we're behind. If we're sure we're behind, why do we want to put more money in the pot when we don't have to? Also, a 2-pair hand is never folding this. I'm all for getting agressive, but this is way different than popping the turn with 8s9s on a 7sTs2d5h board. We have to discount many of our outs in this spot imho, and we don't have enough fold equity to make up for being behind in the hand right now. In a pot this small it really doesn't pay to get this 'creative'.