400NL - Trips on river, hero?

[willw9]

Villain here is SABRES7000, running 29/12/1. We have no recent history, and my only notes on him say that he tends to get tricky preflop. I assume that he is capable of floating postflop as well.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $2/$4 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $405.70
BB: $85.00
Hero (UTG): $400.00
MP: $814.30
CO: $479.30
BTN: $406.50

Preflop: Hero is dealt 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $14.00</font>, MP calls $14.00, 4 folds

Flop: ($34) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $24.50</font>, MP calls $24.50

Turn: ($83) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">MP bets $55.00</font>, Hero calls $55.00

River: ($193) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero ?</font>

[Caballa]

Bet ~120. His AF suggests that he might check through a lot with hands he'd otherwise call a reasonable bet with.

[willw9]

His AF by street is 2.25/1.33/3.17 , probably more relevant.

[Caballa]

Checkraise, then.

[David1234]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet ~120. His AF suggests that he might check through a lot with hands he'd otherwise call a reasonable bet with.

[/ QUOTE ]
such as?, I think those hands that he wants to just showdown he would just check on the turn. I think I would c/c

[Mossberg]

I would usually fire again on the turn vs someone like this.

As played, I think you're probably better off to just lead the river. I can see this guy coldcalling pre with JJ/TT, and I think he can put you on a busted draw and call you light. I also see these weak TAGs check behind hands that they should valuebet, so betting seems slightly better in case he has something like QhTh or QhJh.

I think it's unlikely a player like this bluffs a busted draw here - in fact, I think he'll usually just check behind the turn with a draw.

[FireStorm]

He has hands like QhJh, QhTh here a lot. Bet 125, b/c a lot of these hands check behind on the river.

[Nielsio]

Super easy check and rake a bet?

[phobos]

definitely lead the river, sabres is a calling station and not extremely aggressive

[Unknown Soldier]

[ QUOTE ]
Super easy check and rake a bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

usually, but given what phobos said leading seems good here