Question about simulation (mostly razz, but other games also)

[RustyBrooks]

So I'm a total computer dork and I analyze everything I do. I've written a lot of tools for simulating poker situations, etc, etc. Every time I play a new game I spend a lot of time doing some analysis and my game du jour is razz.

So I wrote a system which does hot-and-cold simulation (if we all call down what percentage do I win against a range of hands - this works much like PokerStove except that it works for all poker games, not just holdem) as well as estimations of equity improvement on the next street (useful in determining whether a call, fold, or raise is good)

The problem with these is information about your opponents. It's ridiculous to assume that your opponents have random cards (mostly!). For players in the 25% vpip range I guess I assume that they're playing similar cards to me and I'd probably give them a quality bonus if they completed or raised. For players that are more like 40% vpip, 20% pfr I guess I assume that if they raise, they have a hand I'd play and if they call it's something worse, maybe 2 cards under 8 and a random card?

Anyway... it's tough to gather info about this because so many hands don't see completion and Full Tilt shuffles the down cards.

Would it be *too* terrible to sort of rank hands in order of hot-and-cold value and, if a player's vpip is, say, 30%, limit their hands to the top 30% of possible hands?

Anyway, I'm going through and analyzing a lot of my old hands and it would be a lot easier if I could semi-automate it (right now I am making my own estimations for hand ranges and running them through my program to see how bad I did)

Edit: probably a mistake for me to make this post "about simulation" when really it's a question about hand reading...

[RustyBrooks]

Oh, and regarding other games... I played holdem enough that I was basically able to assign hand ranges to players very easily... maybe this will eventually happen in razz also?

[adanthar]

Stars doesn't shuffle hands, so you could try their games instead?

Anyway, omg omg please make this tool public?

[jbrennen]

One problem is that a player's VPIP will be very situation dependent -- mainly steal/non-steal, but upcards, opponent tendencies, etc., can all make a difference.

A player with a 40% VPIP might be playing 25% of his hands as value plays and 15% of his hands as steal attempts. You could probably theoretically make some guesses as to a player's value vs. steal tendencies, but you seem to have a grasp on the problems involved with that. Whether a player is betting for value or trying to steal can change on each street... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[RustyBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
Stars doesn't shuffle hands, so you could try their games instead?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll give stars a shot.

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, omg omg please make this tool public?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's pretty rough right now. Also, the bits I described are part of a huge rambling system that actually started as something much like poker tracker. At some point I wanted to play poker more than I wanted to rewrite poker tracker, so I started using PT instead - and my program reads a lot of data from poker tracker now.

Ideally I want to use a tool like what I'm describing to do some auto-analysis of hands I've played, mostly to pick out the awful ones so I can study them.

[RustyBrooks]

If you were going to specify an opponent's hand range in razz, what's the simplest way to express it?

I'm thinking something like this:
95-5-,8-8-8-,5-2-2-p
which translates as 3 rules:
a 9 with 2 cards 5 and under, no pair
any 3 8 or under, no pair
a 5-or-under with 22 or AA pair

Do you think you could adequately describe most player's ranges with 3 or 4 rules like this? (Assume different set of ranges for completing and just calling the bringin and for now let's forget about complicating factors like exposed low cards, steals, etc, what I'm after is, can you compactly describe someone's range with a few rules like this, given a situation)

[Praxising]

I'd also say go to PStars, and I understand they play Razz at Absolute, do they shuffle?

As to FTP, while they do shuffle at showdown, when someone is all-in on 4th-7th, they turn up the cards and you get the real deal. Also, if you go over the hand histories, it can be pretty obvious what was in the hole if you figure in the pattern of the betting and such.

My personal vpip has a pretty high variance depending on the table and especially the number of players at the table. I find behavior a better indicator - if you have a guy coming in a lot and always folding to a brick on 4th, often he's playing a brick and two under eight.

But I play at very low limits - not sure what happens at higher stakes.

[RustyBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
if you have a guy coming in a lot and always folding to a brick on 4th, often he's playing a brick and two under eight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or, they're me [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] I don't always fold when I brick, but I do a lot, esp if more than one person is showing 2 low cards face up. Maybe that's a leak, I don't know yet.

[Praxising]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if you have a guy coming in a lot and always folding to a brick on 4th, often he's playing a brick and two under eight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or, they're me [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] I don't always fold when I brick, but I do a lot, esp if more than one person is showing 2 low cards face up. Maybe that's a leak, I don't know yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't either, I always call one brick,(unless we have a lot of R&J goin' on) so maybe I have the leak.

[adanthar]

calling on a brick is usually a leak in a one-raise pot unless your other cards are nearly perfect vs. his range and he'll make mistakes on fifth.