Variance question for those with more experience.

[automaton_22]

Could I be -3.8BB/100 [NOT PTBB] over 7000 hands and still be a winning or break even player?
Playing NL25.

[Sciolist]

[ QUOTE ]
Could I be -3.8BB/100 [NOT PTBB] over 7000 hands and still be a winning or break even player?
Playing NL25.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes. It depends on what your standard deviation/100 hands is, but let's say it's 50. Your win rate confidence is therefore -3.8 +- 100/sqrt(70) which is -3.8 +/- 12.0

Edit: Oh, not PTBB. Well, you get the idea. 1.9 +/- 12.0

[automaton_22]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Could I be -3.8BB/100 [NOT PTBB] over 7000 hands and still be a winning or break even player?
Playing NL25.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes. It depends on what your standard deviation/100 hands is, but let's say it's 50. Your win rate confidence is therefore -3.8 +- 100/sqrt(70) which is -3.8 +/- 12.0

Edit: Oh, not PTBB. Well, you get the idea. 1.9 +/- 12.0

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks!
If you have a moment could you possibly explain the maths a little more for a math-donkey?

What factors would determine what my standard deviation would be? Is a std deviation / 100 hands of 50 common for an average player?

Also interested hearing from players who have clocked up a lot of hands as to what swings in win rate are like across a sample like 7000.

[eleventy]

7000 is not alot of hands. Post some hands you have questions about is the best way to improve. Maybe move down a step depending on your bankroll.

[good_gamble]

Can't help much with the maths, but as eleventy said, 7k hands is next to nothing. I've been breakeven/losing over 20k before and others have gone much longer than this.

Eleventy's advice is good, also, read the FAQ's in micro NL and SSNL and use PT to review sessions after you finish.

[Sciolist]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks!
If you have a moment could you possibly explain the maths a little more for a math-donkey?

What factors would determine what my standard deviation would be? Is a std deviation / 100 hands of 50 common for an average player?

Also interested hearing from players who have clocked up a lot of hands as to what swings in win rate are like across a sample like 7000.

[/ QUOTE ]
Welcome. Here's a thread explaining the maths:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...rue#Post5688757

50ptbb/100 SD is pretty normal. It's depending on your playing style - i.e, high variance = high standard deviation.

I have had months with 7k breakeven and 7k losing stretches where I've still won > 5ptbb/100 over the whole 25k I play each month.

[notreallymyname]

50ptbb/100 SD is pretty normal for 6 max, that would be very high for full ring where 40 is normal.

[uDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
Could I be -3.8BB/100 [NOT PTBB] over 7000 hands and still be a winning or break even player?
Playing NL25.

[/ QUOTE ]
With a win rate of -3.8 big blinds/100 hands and a standard deviation of 100 big blinds/100 over 7000 hands, your true win rate falls between the red lines with 95% confidence:



You can play with this tool here:

http://www.castrovalva.com/~la/win.htm

[automaton_22]

Awesome thanks everyone.