Scared of a straight flush? (22 flops set)

[_TKO_]

$1/$2 Holdem (10-handed)

Hero is Button with 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Preflop:
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, 1 fold, BB checks

Flop: (5 sb) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (5 bb) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
<font color="red">BB bets</font>, <font color="red">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="red">UTG+2 3-bets</font>, <font color="red">MP3 caps</font>, Hero ...

<font color="white"> This post is a hypothetical situation and did not actually occur. The idea came from another thread in ML. </font>

[CaucasianAsian29]

I'd say it's likely, I'm folding

[bozlax]

You've been cheating off Eeegah's paper, again, haven't you?

[Ignignokt]

I'd normally say that ~5:1 odds are enough to call and see if you boat up or chop, but with three players (maybe four) going this crazy (even though at least one has to be doing some major-league spewing here), AND the knowledge that the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] wasn't going to get folded preflop at a 1/2 table, regardless of kicker, AND that even if you see a boat it's likely going to cost you another 2-3 bets to showdown, it's certainly a laydown to me.

[kerowo]

I would be more concerned about a regular flush and a straight on that board than a straight flush. 100k hands and I've seen less than 10 of them. Granted I had two last weekend but still. Regardless, you have between 0 and 10 outs (which doesn't sound as positive as I thought it would) and are getting 5:1 if everyone completes. I think you can argue it either way, it's a pretty spectacular pot at that point so I'm tempted to take a swing at it.

[martinimagic]

I am folding this. Do you think all of them are going to come along for the ride? I figure chances of BB or UTG+1 folding are good and if you don't have all 10 outs odds are not there.

[DirtyDupe]

GRUNCH

Lay it down.

You have nine outs to a full house plus one out for a 4 of a kind and so the pot odds would be right for hitting one of your outs.

But think about what beats you even if you hit. Pocket 4's, 3's, 5's all beat your full house if you hit it and a 6h and Ah will beat you no matter what.

Given the action that has proceeded, and provided that all your villains aren't complete idiots, I say lay it down. I wouldn't think you even have the second best hand at this point.

[DirtyDupe]

[ QUOTE ]
I would be more concerned about a regular flush and a straight on that board than a straight flush. 100k hands and I've seen less than 10 of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many hands in that 100k have you seen 4 to a straight flush on the turn? I think that you have to give some serious thought to the possibility that, given the action, the Ah is out there. I for one wouldn't bet 8BB that it's not (again, given the action). For the same amount (and same pot odds) against one opponent, calling would be a no-brainer, but not against four!

[Buzz-cp]

Given that an A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] would not be an uncommon holding, I think this is an easy fold.

[Eeegah]

Our next assignment is to calculate precisely how likely this is.