Trying to figure the EV for my move here...

[raze]

From this hand.

The pot is $126. I shove an additional $366 (he covers) to try and pick up the $126 pot. I have calculated my actual pot equity vs. his range at 25% should he call. I am trying to find out how often he needs to call/fold to find a breakeven point. I keep screwing up the calculations, I would appreciate if anyone knew how to do this correctly!

pot = $126
x = percent of the time he calls (0.01-0.99)

Risking $366 to:
- win $126, (1-x) percent of the time
- win 25% of $126 + $366 (his call), x percent of the time


edit: oops, 25% equity against his calling range, not 33%

[AaronBrown]

Here's how to do it in general:

M in the pot
B your bet
p chance that he folds
w chance that you win if he calls

No more betting possible.

Your EV is p*M + (1-p)*w*(M + B) - (1-p)*(1-w)*B

In your case, this is:

p*126 + (1-p)*0.25*(126 + 366) - (1-p)*0.75*366
=126*p + (1-p)*123 - (1-p)*274.5
= 277.5*p - 151.5

This is positive if p > 151.5/277.5 or p > 0.5459 or 54.59%. So you need a bit better than an even chance of folding to make this +EV.

[Pokerfarian]

Note when you do the calculations you get the probability required for the shove to be +EV COMPARED TO FOLDING Normally checking will give you significantly greater than 0 EV