100 NL, so I just turned my 2-outer, or did I?

[SABR42]

Villain is a 29/13 calling station who overplays weak top pair hands when the action clearly suggests his hand is no good.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $50.60
BB: $139.90
UTG: $70.20
UTG+1: $91.00
MP1: $88.15
MP2: $39.70
MP3: $116.45
Hero (CO): $205.75
BTN: $98.50

Preflop: Hero is dealt 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (9 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">MP1 raises to $3.00</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $3.00, 3 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($7.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP1 bets $2.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $10.00</font>, <font color="red">MP1 raises to $18.00</font>, Hero?

Lots of donks will play KK/QQ/JT like this, but this guy is huge donk so I should just shove and hope he has KQ/AA/AK?

[CazicT]

Kinda tough, you wouldn't figure he'd check the flop with AA/AK. I guess maybe he could have been trying to check/raise you, but is he that dumb?

You could call and then call a reasonable bet on the river. Seems like a weak way to play a strong hand, but his line definetly suggests a donk playing a monster.

[effang]

they always do this, and they always have the set, and i always get stacked.

so annoying that i always turn my bottom set.

[You're No Daisy]

I think you have to at least call here. If he has J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] then he's pretty much free rolling you. I like a call here and then see what the river brings. If he checks then I might put him on AK/AQ/KQ and put in a value bet of $18-ish and see what he does with that. I would just go by his stats and your read on him as being donkish. You said it yourself that he overplays weak top pair hands. Wouldn't KT or KJ be in his range too?

The thing that confuses me is villain's re-raise on the turn. It's just shy of a min-raise. Does that typically mean he really loves his hand, or that he is over playing KJ-KT? I would definately take notes after the hand is done. His line seems donkish to me.

AC

[[Phill]]

JThh isnt freerolling, its hit and ahead on flop.

Id call his min3bet on turn and see what the river brings.

A good scare can get you a free showdown and he might have done something really donkish with AQ/JJ/88 (ive seen it before) because he cant see how the 5 improved you beyond what you had on the flop and your weakness on the flop indicates you have nothing.

Id call here and call most rivers he bets (Jh or similar makes it interesting). If he backs off on the river id go for a razor thin value bet, and if you boat up you have to accept that you could get stacked and just play it hard.

[friedace]

I keep trying to tell myself that he could have AK and tried to get creative by checking the flop, and is now trying to gain on the deception with the turn CR. My initial instincts were to just reraise on the turn and get it all in. But, I really don't think this is the case the majority of the time.

I really think that the pf raise, flop check, turn bet $2, then reraise to $18 screams a big hand. That being said, he could take this line with something like top two, or just two pair as well, so I'm really not sure. I guess one would have to do an EV calc and weight that by the likelihood that he would actually take this dumb line with these big hands.

Overall, I would agree with calling and reevaluating on the river. We shouldn't be scared of a nonpairing heart because it's more likely he puts us on the FD. If he pushes a heart, then I guess a fold would be in order. If a non-heart comes, then I would value bet the river, because we're only behind JT and as I said, there are lots of two pair combos that he could have.

[SABR42]

Here's the deal though:

This guy is awful and would never get away from two pair here. He might even call with AA/AK/KJ/KT. Given that, shouldn't we want to get all-in NOW, before a scare card denies me action (and possibly gets me bluffed off the best hand).

[wulfpacker21]

if you think he overplays his hands ... if he made a set or made a straight do you think he would bet the flop does he try and ch/r a lot?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.772% 41.04% 00.28% 1036260 7099.00 { 5c5d }
Hand 1: 59.228% 59.75% 00.28% 1508714 7099.50 { QQ+, AKs, KQs, JTs, AKo, JTo }

your prob. ahead of his range but i think you could just call since your gettin great odds and you could easily be ahead here

[You're No Daisy]

Yeah...J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] isn't necessarily free rolling here. I was assuming the board won't pair for our hero in my 1st reply...bad assumption. J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] does have the nuts right now with redraws to the 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] giving villain the absolute nuts, but that's assuming the worst case scenario for hero, and I don't think that's the case here. Based on hero's read of villain, I'm putting him on AK-AQ, KQ-KT. Even if villain has A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], hero has the two remaining Kings and 3 Queens, 3 nines, and the case 5 as outs. The river will be very interesting...great post!

AC

[Kos13]

Call and c/c river? AA/AK are at least possible, but every time I 4bet here, they have KKK.