3000th+ post, OMG! You can manipulate your opponents' cards!

Sherman · #1 08-08-2007, 02:15 PM

So I didn't write a big long post for the 3000th post like many posters do. But since then, I remembered that there is something I have been thinking about writing for a while. So here it is, my 3000th+ post:

A while back ago I realized something that made me a lot better at poker. I realized I could manipulate my opponents' cards. That's right. I can manipulate the cards that my opponent holds. What? You still don't believe me? Okay, let me demonstrate.

Let's say its the middle of a tournament. Both you and villain have been aggressive and have decent stack sizes with Ms > 20.

You are dealt AK in MP and raise to 3xBB. Everyone folds to the villain, in the BB who calls.

The flop is a beautiful A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

In standard 2+2 fashion, the villain checks and you bet 3/4 pot. Villain just calls.

The turn is 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

The villain checks once again. You bet 1/2 the pot. Villain calls.

The river is 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

The villain checks once again. You again bet 1/2 the pot and villain shoves for the rest of his stack. You fold.

What happened here? First, notice that villain's most likely holding is 88 or 22 for a set. Second, notice that the previously aggressive villain has suddenly played a hand very passively until the river. Against a decent, aggressive, and thinking opponent, our hero in this hand probably should have been very wary of an aggressive villain check/calling this drawless board, and probably should have checked the river. The problem with the river bet is that villain's hand range has changed. Before the flop, villain might have had this hand range: 22+,AJo+,ATs+. By the river however, his range has changed dramatically. He called two fairly large bets on a drawless board. His range on the river is probably AK,88,22. And that's it. How did it get there? Well he could call your flop bet with a wide range of hands hoping you would slow down on the turn. So let's say on the flop his range moved to 22,88+,AJo+,ATs+.

But on the turn, is he ever calling another large bet w/out a strong hand? Very unlikely from a villain who we know to be aggressive. So his post-turn range is probably 22,88,AQ+. He might even dump AQ at this point.

Thus, on the river, we are only value betting against AQ, and many villain's would fold AQ on the river (if they haven't already) to this sort of action. So our "value" bet on the river is a bad decision.

But wait a minute. This post is supposed to be about manipulating your opponents' cards. A keen reader will note however, that I just showed you how by betting each street, you can change your opponent's hand range. By the river, our opponents' hand range went from wide PF to very tight by the river. So by betting we have "manipulated" our opponent's cards. However, by the river we have manipulated them in such a fashion that we make a -EV bet on the river.

But there is good news! If betting manipuates an opponent's hand range to be narrower, is there some way to manipulate his range to be wider? The answer is yes----by checking.

So let's replay our example hand again:

You are dealt AK in MP and raise to 3xBB. Everyone folds to the villain, in the BB who calls.

The flop is a beautiful A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

In standard 2+2 fashion, the villain checks and you bet 3/4 pot. Villain just calls.

The turn is 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

The villain checks once again. Instead of betting this time however, now we check.

The river is 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

The villain checks once again. You again bet 1/2 the pot and villain calls.

In this scenario, we are quite likely to win the hand. Many posters will recognize this turn check, as a check for pot control. However, it is more than just that. Replay this hand through the villain's eyes. You raised PF and made a standard c-bet on the flop. Again, his range going into the turn is the same as above: 22,88+,AJo+,ATs+. But now you check the turn rather than bet. By checking rather than betting, we have "manipulated" his hand range to be exacly the same going into the turn as going into the river. Now when we bet the river, we actually are betting for value. We can still fold to a river check/raise, but now villain might call our river bet with a wide range of hands including 99-KK,AJ,AT. Thus, by checking the turn, we have manipulated his river hand range to make a +EV play.

The example hand above was chosen because it is a very simple and straightfoward example. And many regular posters will recognize it as standard, but there are many many many other examples where by checking, you can manipulate your opponents' hand ranges. In a hand I posted yesterday, I was able to manipulate an opponent into stacking off with a hand that he certainly would have folded if I bet. It is linked here.

Here is another example:

The button open limps. You complete with A2o in the SB. The BB checks.

The flop is A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

If you bet here, you can almost always expect to get called by only better hands. But you can check to wider your opponents' hand ranges on the turn. You check and it checks around. The turn is a 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Now you bet. The BB folds and the button calls. The river is a 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. You bet and the button calls. He shows QJo. Had you led the flop, he may have folded this hand figuring your for an A in a multi-way pot. But your flop check manipulated him into playing a hand he otherwise would have folded. You manipulated his hand range.

Anyhow, many times people point out that you are either WA/WB and should check. Or that you should check for pot control. However, there is another reason for sometimes checking, and that is to manipulate your opponents' hand ranges to make +EV plays. I'd encourage posters to post other hands in here where they checked to manipulate their opponents' hand ranges to make a profitable play later in the hand.

BlueEcho · #2 08-08-2007, 02:25 PM

Certainly a well timed post!

Thanks

PS and Great post!

footnbaseball · #3 08-08-2007, 02:38 PM

You're so smart.

This is really good stuff, and it seems to me like whether or not they realize it, a lot of players do this to some extent by slowplaying when they flop an excellent hand.

AC-Cobra · #4 08-08-2007, 02:53 PM

Wow, thanks, this is a very smart post.

ItalianFX · #5 08-08-2007, 02:58 PM

This is one thing I have always thought about, but never really knew how to put it into words.

Awesome read.

MJBuddy · #6 08-08-2007, 03:43 PM

Great way to express the idea that shows up in most of the hands you post (Checking to widen the ranges of the villains bet/calling hands).

Good post.

Edit: What's Pooh-Bah btw? How many posts, I mean?

jgunnip · #7 08-08-2007, 03:50 PM

Nice post Sherman.

This also falls under the category of playing in a way that makes your opponent's decisions more difficult.

ItalianFX · #8 08-08-2007, 04:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Edit: What's Pooh-Bah btw? How many posts, I mean?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's like 1600

jgunnip · #9 08-08-2007, 04:44 PM

This may or may not be a good example for this thread as it has more to do with altering the range your opponent's put you on. It's from an $11 6max tourney. MP2 had solid looking stats so I can assume he's probably a thinking player (2nd level) who prolly calling PPs and AQ pf.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB (t1195)
BB (t1585)
Hero (t2970)
MP (t2680)
CO (t2815)
Button (t2145)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises to t100, MP calls t100, 3 folds, BB calls t70.

Flop: (t315) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP bets t230, BB folds, Hero calls t230.

Turn: (t775) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets t500, Hero calls t500.

River: (t1775) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets t1850 (All-In), Hero calls t1850.

Final Pot: t5475

Results in white below: 
Hero has Kd As (one pair, aces).
MP has 3s 3c (one pair, threes).
Outcome: Hero wins t5475.

JoeyJoJo Shabadu · #10 08-08-2007, 05:19 PM

I think in sherm's example it is more likely to generate the call on the river when it's BvB or a blind steal situation. I've been in that spot many times and i've started to realize slowing down in these small pots plays to my advantage more often than not (or as you crazy people say +EV).

Here's a similar kind or stop and go... the only problem is there's a scare card that slowed me up and it wasn't "by choice". But it does get money in on the river that never would have called another bet.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP2 (t1495)
MP3 (t3050)
CO (t2750)
Button (t1345)
SB (t3825)
BB (t1840)
UTG (t7035)
UTG+1 (t115)
Hero (t4805)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to t300, 1 fold, MP3 calls t300, 3 folds, BB calls t200.

Flop: (t950) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t400, MP3 calls t400, BB folds.

Turn: (t1750) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks.

River: (t1750) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets t500, Hero calls t500.

Final Pot: t2750

Results in white below: 
Hero has Ad Qc (one pair, queens).
MP3 has 6h 6d (one pair, sixes).
Outcome: Hero wins t2750.