50nl: KK on drawy flop

[dallas14]

Villian is playing a 35/7/.46. only 28 hands though.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($82.30)
MP ($50)
CO ($50.70)
Button ($17.80)
SB ($88.30)
BB ($71.75)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, CO calls $1.75, Button calls $1.75, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($6) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $14.5,</font> Button folds, Hero...

<font color="black">I dont think i can just call. Is shoving an option? </font>

[derosnec]

what did button do?

this is a tough hand because he's raising you before button has acted, which is a pretty strong move. and you're out of position, which means turn/river play is gonna suck for you. and you don't really have much invested: only about 14bbs. so you're nowhere near committed. he could do this with AJ or QQ or whatever i suppose. maybe a flush draw. sets/J9.

becaue of the potsize, his line multiway, your position, and his range (and your equity when all in), i'm going to vote "fold."

[dallas14]

button folded

[AFCBeer]

[ QUOTE ]
and you don't really have much invested: only about 14bbs. so you're nowhere near committed.


[/ QUOTE ]

But if you do call you are committed since there is only a pot size bet left. This is all in or fold. I think this is AJ or QQ more often than a hand that beats you so I push. A read would be nice here but against an unknown I would push.

EDIT: Just seen villains AF. However, this can be a particularly misleading stat and can take a long time to converge. Over just 28 hands an AF of 0.46 is pretty meaningless.

[ajmargarine]

I would need a read to fold.

[derosnec]

he's not committed if he calls. he will have put in about 1/3 of his stack. so he could call and check/fold to a bad turn card.

that might be better than just folding. pushing i dunno. when i ran it through pokerstove, it didn't look pretty (i weighed made hands more than draws, and of the made hands, i gave more weight to the ones that beat us than to hands like TP).

[AFCBeer]

So what are we labelling a bad turn card? An ace, diamond, Ten or Queen? If we plan to fold when one of these hits on the turn then why allow that draw to come in? Surely it makes sense to get the money in before any draws are completed.

[derosnec]

the guy put in $14 on the flop. if he has a draw, he's not exactly seeing the turn cheap. and if he has a draw and misses on the turn, his equity goes way down, whereas on the flop if we push, it's a coinflip. this situation sucks honestly because of his raise before button acted.

[dallas14]

what if it was just me and him that went to the flop and the button folded pre?

[derosnec]

then i'd probably 3bet the flop because his raise doesn't signify as much strength, so i'd weigh monsters less in pokerstove.