Weak TP facing river allin

[ahnuld]

villan is regular. He doesnt think on too deep a level, aka big hand = call, small hand = fold pretty much despite what you are repping. That doesnt really matter for this hand but just to give you an idea. He wins a good amount though and gets in the hands. He runs at about 17/14 over a big sample size.

Effective stacks 1130. [censored] player makes it 40 utg, villan calls, I call in bb with T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Flop comes J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I lead for 90, utg calls, villan INSTA calls.

Turn is the 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I bet 290, utg folds, villan calls.

River is 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I check, villan times down for a bit and shoves for 710 into 970. Call or fold

[Scipio]

Villain could valuebet AJ here so he has many better hands he valuebets with. He will check hand like J9s,89,67. So he bluffs only with busted flushdraws and i don´t see many busted flushdraws that don´t have a pair. KQs, AQs perhaps but most of the time you are dead so i think it´s an easy fold.

[DrMagic]

Looks like an easy fold

[jackflashdrive]

(1) Insta-call from late position represents draw of some sort for villain (especially since at least one of you is likely to have a draw)

(2) You look like you are willing to felt your hand on the turn. I don't know why he'd want a club to show up and ruin his action (if he flopped a set he would have to raise flop considering at least one of his two runners had a draw in a big pot).

(3) Checking the river looks weak on your part, more consistent with your flop weakness. I think he either has 910 or a busted flush draw. More ways to have a busted flush I'd c/c unless I've seen him check behind a definite loser in similar situations before.

[skier_5]

villian's 3bet frequency? If he's one of those 17/14's that 3 bets a [censored] load i think i'd be a lot more inclined to call, but im still leaning towards a fold i think.

[cowpig]

he has 9T

[Josh.]

i dont think he has T9 unless it's specifically T9cc. i really cannot think of another hand he can have. that almost makes me want to call but becuase hes so tight i give him the benefit of the doubt and fold

[gir]

What's his river aggression?

[Big_Jim]

Against typical villains, I'd just c/f the turn. You're not beating much, after you get called in two spots here, most of the time.

Given that UTG is [censored], and could call with worse does make it more appealing, but you're making the pot pretty damn big. If you think you can value shove the river if only UTG calls, I guess its ok, especially since the instacall from BTN really looks like a draw.

Given that you didn't get the action that you wanted, river is a tough spot. You can't really shove for value, although you could probably get him to fold KJ if you shove.

Your pot sized bet on the turn really should eliminate most all draws. I suppose 9Tc 97c 67c QTc 8xc might tag along, but I definitely wouldn't count on it.

Given that, I really think you have to give him credit for AJ+ here, as I really don't see him turning a weak made hand into a bluff here.

[ahnuld]

Insta flop call made me belueve he had a draw. Nobody insta calls with Aj here, they need time to figure out wtf to do. Same with overpairs, it requires more analysis. Thats why I almost never insta-anything, timing tells. So I figure either a club draw or a straight draw. Less straight draws are possible mathematically (I hold a T) and im getting odds so I called.