Don't let me stop you, sir

[FoldEqu1ty]

Villain is 47/15/5 over 1000 hands. As can be expect he continuation bets most flops, but also follows up on 80% of turns (11 out of 14 according to PAhud). His aggression frequency is 61% on the flop, 65% turn and 65% river. For the final nail in the coffin, he goes to 30% of showdowns and is winning 35% of them.

I can't think of any more +EV way to play this. Yes my hand is "vulnerable", but only to a small portion of the range he is betting with. At the same time my hand is not that strong, and god know what this guy will do if I raise. I think raise/folding is horrific spew versus this type of player, and I'm not ready to commit with second pair here, though perhaps I should. Is this line standard versus such a reliably aggressive opponent?



Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $251.21
Hero (BB): $200.00
UTG: $437.96
CO: $241.00
BTN: $254.50

Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $8.00</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $6.00

Flop: ($17) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $12.00</font>, Hero calls $12.00

Turn: ($41) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $22.00</font>, Hero calls $22.00

River: ($85) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $32.00</font>, Hero calls $32.00

[Unknown Soldier]

seems fine, could lead turn to charge draws, but since he bluffs so much i like c/c down

[Fletcher19]

[ QUOTE ]
seems fine, could lead turn to charge draws, but since he bluffs so much i like c/c down

[/ QUOTE ]

[Mossberg]

nh. the river is actually kinda close now that I think about it. His small bet in position leads me to believe this is like never a bluff, and quite often a better hand. Well, hopefully he's just making a thin valuebet, cuz I can never get away here vs this guy.

[FoldEqu1ty]

Oh and I didn't 3bet pre because he's coming in with a relatively narrow range, stealing 20% of the time.

[Mossberg]

yea I like calling here better than 3betting too.

[Mossberg]

I'm high so correct me if this range is wrong - but I'm starting to think that maybe it's best to fold the river. Sure we're getting good odds, but when bluffs don't make sense, we need to count on him to be making some pretty thin valuebets to make calling correct.

Board: 5d Jc Qs 2c 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.430% 17.20% 03.23% 16 3.00 { AhJh }
Hand 1: 79.570% 76.34% 03.23% 71 3.00 { JJ+, 55, AQs-AJs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AQo-AJo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

[FoldEqu1ty]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm high so correct me if this range is wrong - but I'm starting to think that maybe it's best to fold the river. Sure we're getting good odds, but when bluffs don't make sense, we need to count on him to be making some pretty thin valuebets to make calling correct.

Board: 5d Jc Qs 2c 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.430% 17.20% 03.23% 16 3.00 { AhJh }
Hand 1: 79.570% 76.34% 03.23% 71 3.00 { JJ+, 55, AQs-AJs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AQo-AJo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

[/ QUOTE ]

No offence dude, but you must be really high lol. He's double barelling 80% of the time, has an AF of 5 and bets 65% of rivers. I strongly suspect that the only stuff he doesn't bet the river with are hands he wants to showdown cheaply.

[JediMyndTrik]

yeah, i c/c all the way down, nothing wrong here

[Mossberg]

the first time I read the post, I skipped over your breakdown of how aggressive he is street by street - my bad. Anyways, I still expect a bet this size to be for value alot more often than as a bluff. To be fair, I'd call this too. But looking at it now, I'm doubtful that this is a bluff. At this point, he has to put you on a hand that you want to showdown, but he's betting anyways, and giving you a good price to call. So maybe I'm underestimating just how much of a maniac this guy is, but I think it's closer than you imagine.