NL50: Flopped Full, WORST TURN, RIV EVER!!! Now What?

Gobias Ind. · #1 08-05-2007, 01:30 AM

Villian is smart TAG. 17/4/1 over 1kish hands in db.

Anyone not like flop as played? I like leading this into a field. Am I ever good on this riv???

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($33.05)
Button ($46)
SB ($125.40)
BB ($72.75)
UTG ($9.35)
Hero ($107.75)
MP1 ($37.45)
MP2 ($53.55)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, Button raises to $1.5, 2 folds, Hero calls $1, MP2 calls $1, CO calls $1.

Flop: ($6.75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets $5, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button calls $5.

Turn: ($16.75) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $12, Button calls $12.

River: ($40.75) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $27 and is all-in.

Final Pot: $40.75

inverted · #2 08-05-2007, 02:56 AM

He raised so small on the flop, do you think he does that with Aces or AK?

RyanCMU · #3 08-05-2007, 03:09 AM

I think he would pop the flop or the turn with AK, KQ, and pop the turn w/ QQ. So my only real concern is AA.

He did raise a bunch of limpers on his button, however his stats are pretty passive only 4% pfr, so I think we can widen his range to include a few more hands, but not significantly wider. However, importantly we can include KJs and K10s and JTs in his range.

Since he is passive though, we can rule out Ahi type hands, unless they were FDs.

However, you have 1k hands w/ him, so you should be able to get a better handle on this then us....

Anyways here is the Pokerstove breakdown of our equity vs what I think his range on the river is...

Board: 2d Kc Kd Qd As
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.625% 40.63% 00.00% 13 0.00 { 2h2s }
Hand 1: 59.375% 59.38% 00.00% 19 0.00 { AcAd, AcAh, AdAh, KhKs, QcQh, QcQs, QhQs, AcKc, AhKh, AdJd, AdTd, KhQh, KsQs, KhJh, KsJs, KhTh, KsTs, JdTd, AcKh, AcKs, AdKc, AdKh, AdKs, AhKc, AhKs, KhQc, KhQs, KsQc, KsQh, KhTc, KhTd, KhTs, KsTc, KsTd, KsTh }

Also, I didn't include any suited connecters (except 10dJd)into his range, because I don't know much about this villains since we just got #s no reads. However, if we factor in hands like 8d9d, 6d7d, and such, it becomes much closer.

I think this is a close decision...

And also, 17/4/1 isn't a "smart TAG." Stats like that are usually the signs of a poor player.