NL100 TPTK, AJ OOP in 3 bet pot, overcard + 3flush comes on river

[getsky]

Villian in this hand is playing a snug 15/10/2, Att to Steal 15% over 150 hands.
No other reads. I was paying probably 18/16 at this table, not really 3 betting much.

I realize my first mistake was 3 betting AJ in the first place...gotta stop doing that to these types of guys.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP ($104.76)
Button ($98.50)
Hero ($100.50)
BB ($231.64)
UTG ($224.31)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $14</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $10.

Flop: ($29) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP checks.
<font color="blue"> Not a bad flop for me I was going for a check raise here, but no such luck</font>


Turn: ($29) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $20</font>, MP calls $20.

<font color="blue"> OK, so since he didn't bet, maybe he has a missed AK or AQ, so why not bet it right.. </font>

River: ($69) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets $40.5</font> HERO ?????????????

<font color="blue"> Is this an easy call down here? I'm sure he shows up here with a flush or AK even sometimes </font>

[The Good]

As you say 3-betting AJs against opponents like this is a mistake.

He probably has a tight calling range against a 3-bet, most players with these stats has. I would say TT-AA and AK (I think that it's def. possible that he smooth calls KK and AA, atleast players at NL100 do often where I play).

Factor in this tight calling range and you see that a CR on the flop is real bad. I would go with bet and fold to rerasie. If called I would try to check it down, you won't get no value from weaker hands by betting but you could catch him blufing AK on the river in best case scenario.

As played river is an easy fold.

[ehafner]

Instafold that river. Worst card in the deck. Flush is there, Q10s is there, KQ is there...or he coulda had you beat anyway.