Good or bad re-steal push?

[Radford999]

Hi.

Take a look at this thread. It was from the 500k at Full Tilt this sunday.

Just wondering hat you guys think about my play and this guys call... [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

http://www.internettexasholdem.com/p...l-vt53425.html

[Cornell Fiji]

post the hand here if you care enough to get our feedback.

also, don't post results.

[Radford999]

Well, it just seemed pointless posting out the hand again, as i've already posted it out and i've posted my reasoning too.

Well, i had to post the results becasue that's the whole point of this thread.

[kerk]

Just copy paste. If you want replies You have to put an effort in to give us the information.

[NotFadeAway]

Sounds like nothing more than whining about losing to a bad player making a bad call. It seems (and is in fact obvious from your post) that you know that you picked a good time to bluff, but just want to complain about bad luck.

No offense or anything, but that is how it sounds.

[Radford999]

Ok. I'll post it here.

It was the 500k on full tilt. 3328 started. 154 left. average stack is well over 50k. I'm sitting there with 34k. Blinds at 1,200/2,400. My image has been displayed as very tight. Up to now i have been playing ABC poker. Nothing to rash or sudden. Just steady poker. The button had about 70k.

The button was a very loose aggressive player. He seemed to be raising whenever he got the chance. It was folded around to the button who raised it up to 6,200. I had a particular read on this player about his betting patterns and the size of his raise too. Small raises were weak hands and big raises were big hands.

I was sitting in the BB with 10-4 of clubs. Nothing special. But it appeared that he was just pure sealing. He had nothing. I mean, i knew he had nothing, the frustrating thing was that he called anyway with nothing.

So i pushed over the top of him. I liked my push, as his range for raising OTB here is very wide. He took the time to think of whether to call or not. It maybe took him about 1 minute before he finally made the call.....on 10-7 off suit.

I was really really shocked. He risked half his stack to make this call. There's no way he knows 10-7 off suit is the best hand there. Ye he still made the call. So his 10 high won the pot.

Maybe it's a just case of he made the wrong move at the right time? and i made the right move at the wrong time?

[Tackleberry]

I don´t understand this post - honestly ...

[ QUOTE ]

[...]
I mean, i knew he had nothing, the frustrating thing was that he called anyway with nothing.
[...]


[/ QUOTE ]

What else is to add here?

Against a random hand your T4o is a 57:43 underdog and if you expect him to call you extremely loose (maybe even 70%?)there is not that much hope to find a hand which is a significant dog to yours ...

To underlay this with some (rough, surely not precise) math:

In 30% you win 9,8k (+ antes), and the other 70% you win 37% of all cases for a profit of about 55k and lose in 64% your entire remaining stack (47k).

This adds up to:

(9.8k x 0.3) + [0.7 x (55k x 0.37) + (-47k x 0.64)] = -6.8k

So, your shove is -EV. It gets slightly (!!) break even when you expect Villain to fold 50% of his hands, which does not match your description.