Who can help me with this EV calculation

[Panic__NL]

This is the hand against a 28/9/2.2 (212):

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $36.15
UTG+1: $24.75
CO: $69.10
Hero: $69
SB: $48.20
BB: $19.10

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $4.5</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($9.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $9</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $64.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB calls all-in $34.7</font>.
Uncalled bets: $20.8 returned to Hero.

Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($96.9, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $96.9)


River: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($96.9, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $96.9)


Results:
Final pot: $96.9


Suppose he has an overpair, I want to calculate the FE I need to make this hand EV neutral. Dont argue if I have any FE, just help me with the calculations.
Assuming he has an overpair and I have a clean straight draw and 2 outs to a set I have 38.5% equity.


Pot after his 9 raise on the flop the pot is: 18.5
I call 9 and raise on the flop: 34.7 putting him allin
making the pot: 62.2
He has to call: 34.7
Total pot is now: 96.9


EV= 18.5x + (1-x)((0.385 * 96.9) - 43.7)
EV= 18.5x + (1-x)(-6.4)
0= 18.5x + 6.4x - 6.4
6.4 = 24.9x
x= 0.25 = 25% FE

So I need 25% fold equity against an overpair to make the flop push EV neutral.
I dont think this will happen, but I assumed his range to be realy narrow.
Now lets assume his range is JJ+ but also all suited AQ+ and all red and all black AK. Then pokerstove says:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

213,840 games 0.005 secs 42,768,000 games/sec

Board: 9s 6c 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.590% 48.89% 00.70% 104544 1498.50 { JJ+, AQs+, AcKs, AdKh, AhKd, AsKc }
Hand 1: 50.410% 49.71% 00.70% 106299 1498.50 { 88 }


It is about a coinflip. If this were the case, does it change anything? Cause he will almost always fold AK, AQ UI and against a bigpair I am still a big underdog. How do we evaluate the situation if we open up his range like described above?

[bizzym00]

uh hii u have a 6 car dstraite

[tarheeljks]

[ QUOTE ]
How do we evaluate the situation if we open up his range like described above?

[/ QUOTE ]

as his range increases his equity decreases, so your fe increases (presumably).

[JackAll]

I'm too lazy to do the calcs cuz i'm feeling tired, but push is goot. Screw it, I'll do it.


If we put his range at JJ+/AK
JJ-AA: 24 combos
AK: 16 combos


flop pot: 18.5
he bets 9: pot now: 27.5 with 34 behind

When we push, he folds AK and we win $27.5 15 times (leave out AsKs) = +$412.5

When we push, calls AsKs and lose half the time against one hand, so we lose $34 half a time, and win $66 half a time = +$15.5

When he calls with JJ+, we lose 2/3 of the time against 24 hands so we lose $34.70 16 times (-$555) and win $66 8 times (+$528) = -$27

So overall, we are up [ (+$412.5 +$15.5 -$27) / 40 hands ] = +$10.02 per hand on average by pushing. That's A LOT OF MONIES in case you don't get that lol.

If we add in AQ, it's even better.
If we add in TT, I think he folds an all-in often enough to stay roughly similarly profitable.

So obv anything other than pushing will be less profitable.


Can u ship me monies for the calc's plz? $25 will be fine [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
It is about a coinflip.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, but you win money when he folds. When he doesn't, you lose less than you win since you lose, you lose $34 and when you win, you win $66 cuz of the money already in the pot on top of his leftover stack.

[ QUOTE ]
How do we evaluate the situation if we open up his range like described above?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this player opens much more than what I said. But with someone who 3-bets alot, we get them to fold more and it is even more +EV.

[Panic__NL]

lol I did the calcs myself all you ahd to do is check them. so no monies for u sir

[JackAll]

[ QUOTE ]
lol I did the calcs myself all you ahd to do is check them. so no monies for u sir

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but I gave you the actual dollar amount you win.
Ship it over hombre [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Panic__NL]

ok ok, but I win 10 per hand you say and you charge me 25, that sounds -EV to me.
I will be thankfull to you the rest of my life, is that good enough.
No serious thanks for the calculations, learns me a lot.

[Panic__NL]

hmm, I just saw your math is incorrect. the pot is 18.5 after het bets the flop, instead of 27.