Did I make the mistake or did villain?

[CruNKinTILT]

I've been thinking recently about hands where I am leading postflop, I make it expensive for a villain to outdraw me, and I end up paying him off when he does. Am I making the bigger mistake of paying him off or is he the one making the mistake by calling? I listed an example below where I was leading on the flop, and I end up giving the SB (who had 89) 1.6:1 odds of making his OESD on the turn. So ... ((6:1 - 1.6:1) * $36) = $158.4 that villain has to make every time he calls my raise. (Straight Odds- Pot Odds) * Pot Size. Now villain made his straight in this example and I paid him off - which afterwards I figured I made the larger mistake because I put $300 in the pot when I only expect to get ~ $26 back on average (outdrawing villains straight by making a full house on the river)

And this is where I get confused because villain WONT make $158.4 on average since he does not hit his straight enough times to make calling my flop raise profitable ...

I don't know, can anyone help explain to me.. I have to be making the MUCH bigger mistake since I put in $300 when I was behind and villain only put in $36 when he was behind... right?


SB: $493.00
BB: $190.00
UTG: $48.00
Hero (CO): $337.45
BTN: $218.15

Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG calls $2.00, Hero calls $2.00, BTN folds, SB calls $1.00, BB checks

Flop: ($8) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">BB bets $8.00</font>, UTG calls $8.00, <font color="red">Hero raises to $36.00</font>, SB calls $36.00, BB calls $28.00, UTG calls $28.00

Turn: ($152) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">BB bets $56.00</font>, UTG calls all-in for $10.00, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $299.45</font>, SB calls $299.45, BB calls all-in for $96.00

River: ($912.90) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 Players - 3 All-In)

Pot Size: $912.90 ($3 Rake)

[DeliciousBass]

This hand isn't HU.

If the BB and UTG aren't involved, he's making a mistake calling on the flop and then you rectify that for him when he fills. With the other two in there...he's money.

(Note: I had to look at this six times and everytime I went back I noticed something new "Oh UTG is there too", "Oh he had the nuts on the turn", etc...in the event that I missed some other important fact, I apologize)

[drzen]

Pushing on the turn was terrible. Did you even stop to think what they all called your flop raise with? In this spot, I am expecting to see a set and a straight and I never bet this turn.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
I put $300 in the pot when I only expect to get ~ $26 back on average (outdrawing villains straight by making a full house on the river)

[/ QUOTE ]
4 outs out of 44 cards means you fill up about 1/11 of the time, and win the $910 pot, so you expect to get back $910/11, about $82. I'm not sure where you got the $26. When you pushed, the pot wasn't $910, but you also don't put $300 in unless the SB calls.

[ QUOTE ]
villain WONT make $158.4 on average since he does not hit his straight enough times to make calling my flop raise profitable ...


[/ QUOTE ]
First, the $158 is a miscalculation. Second, he invested $36 with 8 nut outs, and netted $600. He can't be sure it will be a nice multiway pot, or that he would get paid off that much, but I think it's an easy, profitble call. There is a good chance someone will pay him off.

[ QUOTE ]
I end up giving the SB (who had 89) 1.6:1 odds

[/ QUOTE ]
It's 1.67:1 if no one else calls, which didn't happen. With 2 other callers, he was getting 3.2:1.

[ QUOTE ]
((6:1 - 1.6:1) * $36) = $158.4 that villain has to make every time he calls my raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
Out of 47 cards, he has 8 nut outs. That's not 6:1. That's very close to 1/6 or 5:1, 4.875:1 to be precise. If he were the only caller, he would need to get (4.875-1.667)* $36 more from you after hitting, about the size of the pot at that point. With two other callers, he only needed to get a small fraction of the size of the pot after hitting, or the chance to make a profitable turn call.

You can use a few different types of accounting to try to assess a mistake. Any complete accounting system is fine, even though they don't agree on which plays are mistakes, but don't mix different accounting systems.

[drzen]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I put $300 in the pot when I only expect to get ~ $26 back on average (outdrawing villains straight by making a full house on the river)

[/ QUOTE ]
4 outs out of 44 cards means you fill up about 1/11 of the time, and win the $910 pot, so you expect to get back $910/11, about $82. I'm not sure where you got the $26. When you pushed, the pot wasn't $910, but you also don't put $300 in unless the SB calls.

[ QUOTE ]
villain WONT make $158.4 on average since he does not hit his straight enough times to make calling my flop raise profitable ...


[/ QUOTE ]
First, the $158 is a miscalculation. Second, he invested $36 with 8 nut outs, and netted $600. He can't be sure it will be a nice multiway pot, or that he would get paid off that much, but I think it's an easy, profitble call. There is a good chance someone will pay him off.


[/ QUOTE ]

If he hits the 6, not even our guy pays him off. I think that he has an easy fold. He's getting nothing like the right odds and isn't closing the action. You seem to have interpreted that as "good chance of getting a multiway pot", but this is a fairly dry board, so "someone pushes behind" or "all fold behind" is much more likely.

[QuietEarner]

PREFLOP
Why are we even playing this hand preflop? If you do decide to play it, why are you limping?

FLOP
After a pot sized bet and a call, do you think they are both drawing? You're not beating much here only 2-9with a ten, and with UTG leaving himself with $10 behind seems like he's begging for a call from you so he can get his last $10 in on the turn.

I know this had nothing to do with the odds, but could have saved yourself the trouble here preflop or on the flop.

[drzen]

[ QUOTE ]
PREFLOP
Why are we even playing this hand preflop? If you do decide to play it, why are you limping?


[/ QUOTE ]

There's nothing wrong with limping. He certainly shouldn't raise.

[ QUOTE ]
FLOP
After a pot sized bet and a call, do you think they are both drawing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, the second guy probably is.

[ QUOTE ]
You're not beating much here only 2-9with a ten, and with UTG leaving himself with $10 behind seems like he's begging for a call from you so he can get his last $10 in on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd suggest he's plain retarded, actually, because he closes the action, leaving 10 behind.

[ QUOTE ]
I know this had nothing to do with the odds, but could have saved yourself the trouble here preflop or on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

He could definitely chuck it on the flop.

Well, we know that SB had 98, but what do you think the others have?

My guess: BB has two pair, T7 or 75; UTG has a set of 5s or something truly bad like KT.

[QuietEarner]

I would argue to raise if you're gonna play it since you'll be in position, I understand the limp just don't like it. With the raise you take control of the pot with position, and probably heads up.

Also that board isn't that scary, yeah a straight draw, so if you flopped two pair or a set UTG you're more likely to get 8 called than 18. so leave 10 behind and they have to call that on the turn. He's not closing the action Hero is left to act.

[Phone Booth]

Even with position, I think a fold is correct on the flop. Basically, if one person has a Ten with a higher kicker and another has 98, you're pretty much drawing dead. That's not to menton pushing the turn after everyone calls your pot-sized raise - you're up against a straight or a set virtually every time if you get called there.

Consider this:

Board: Tc 7d 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 03.780% 01.71% 02.07% 14 17.00 { JcTd }
Hand 1: 39.146% 37.07% 02.07% 304 17.00 { KcTs }
Hand 2: 28.659% 28.66% 00.00% 235 0.00 { 9d8d }
Hand 3: 28.415% 28.41% 00.00% 233 0.00 { 6h4h }

[cynic757]

Classic first level thinking on your part. You made two pair on the turn and since it's usually a decently strong hand you pushed without any regard whatsoever as to what these THREE other guys in the pot have. Your 2nd pair card completed the most obvious draw on the board and you still pushed!! Major spew.