Draw: A MId-Hand Bluff

[Al Mirpuri]

Paradise Poker
1.00/2.00 Five Card Draw (FL) - 08 July 2007
(Real /Cash Game )
Seat 2: Villain
Seat 3: Hero
Vilain post SB 0.50
Hero post BB 1.00
** Deal **
Villain [?, ?, ?, ?, ?]
Hero [9c, 9h, 9s, 6s, 2h]
*** Bet Round 1 ***
Villain Call 1.00
Hero Raise to 2.00
Villain Call 2.00
*** Exchange ***
Seat : 2 Villain [?, ?, ?, ?, ?]
Seat : 3 Hero [9c, 9h, 9s, 6c, 2h]
Villain Exchanged cards: 1
Hero Exchanged cards: 1
*** Bet Round 2 ***
Hero Check
Villain Bet 2.00
Hero Call 2.00
*** Showdown *** : Rake: 0.40 Total Pot: 7.60
Villian [Jh, Jc, 6d, 5c, 4h] Pair of jacks Win: 0.00
Hero [9s, 9h, 9c, 6c, 2h] Three of a kind, nines Win: 7.60

Commentary:

I have just spent a couple of hours playing against villain in a four-handed game. He is a bluffer and a limper, in short, he is a fish.

The game is dying. We find ourselves heads up.

A few hands in this hand gets played.

He limps. I two bet the trip nines (I two bet a lot of hands in this scenario but perhaps Villain is not to know that) on the principle that the only way to win a big pot is to create one. Villain calls. I draw one for deception purposes. Villain draws one. I check. Villain bets. I call confident that he is bluffing. When I see his hand, a pair of jacks, it becomes clear that Villain had initially limped to draw three and check it down and win against a non-pair big blind hand or hit his trip Jacks and bet post draw hoping for a call. Once I two bet he decided that he was more likely to win representing a draw that hits rather than drawing three and hoping to win by making two pairs or trips. (As it stands, he needs the third jack.) I find it intersesting that he changed his mind mid-hand on how to play it but he made the wrong choice. I had already caught him out making this sort of bluff...If he draws three he improves 1 in 2.5approx yet he chose a line of play that hand virtually no way of succeeeding. I had earlier called in this sort of spot with a pair of tens and won so it is not the trip nines that made my call possible.

Postscript

Anyone see that i discard a six and catch a six. If I had thrown the two and filled well then I am obviously checkraising just in case he has made his draw. I threw the six on the principle that the higher card was more likely to be in play than the lower one and that is true but only just as more straights can be made with a six than a two.

[stripsqueez]

your opponent is an idiot because heads up the only hand your folding to a post draw bet is a bluff

the only reason not to draw 1 to 3 of a kind is because you can

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Murakawa]

You're right but I don't really think that's the point. People don't know how to play heads up even more than regular poker, all they think is that deception is key, maybe thinking you won't tighten up enough. Yes, he made a bad choice, and no he wasn't paying attention, but this isn't surprising for a novice draw player.


[ QUOTE ]
your opponent is an idiot because heads up the only hand your folding to a post draw bet is a bluff

the only reason not to draw 1 to 3 of a kind is because you can

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[/ QUOTE ]

[forhasta]

the one draw with JJ is just idiocy. if he draws 3 and hits his JJ, a check will induce you to bet and call his raise. After calling your raise, he can still only lose one bet if he check-calls with JJ if he puts you on a bluff. Either way, he manged to lose a hand and give himself little opportunity of improving.

[bigpooch]

You played the hand "normally" and your opponent made some
clear errors as mentioned by others. You discarded the
"normal" card because of the reasons you mentioned. Of
course, if you did catch a boat, checkraising should be
clear.

Your opponent made a mistake by not open raising with JJ.
Is he oblivious that you could just have something like
AK/AQ/KQ and get lucky to make a bigger pair (not to mention
many other scenarios).

It is also ridiculous that he is drawing one card to a pair
given the action. He's obviously oblivious that you are
automatically checking to him and letting him bluff off some
more chips.

[greggg230]

Is the added chance that you'll fill up since it is less likely the 2 is in play of more weight than the extra chance to catch quads when drawing two? I know it's only an extra 2% or so, but how much does drawing one add to your chance of a boat?

[bigpooch]

If we have no information about the opponent's cards, the
chances are as follows:

Drawing One:

quads: 1/47
boat: 3/47
total: 4/47 or about 0.0851064

Drawing Two:

quads: 2/47
boat: (10*6+2*3)/C(47,2)=60/1081

total: 112/1081 or about 0.1036078


The difference when keeping the deuce instead of the six is
comparatively very small and depends on the opponent
obviously. If the opponent draws one and could have an
openended straight draw, a deuce can only be a part of 2345
(and not every player plays such a weak openender) whereas
a six can be part of four different openended straight
draws.

On the other hand, the opponent could have a flush draw
that he DIDN'T raise with, in which case it is a TINY BIT
more likely he has deuce, but it's not as significant.

The primary reason to draw one to trips is to get a player
with two pairs or even one pair to pay off. If you draw
two, everyone knows you almost always have at least a big
pair, but if you draw one, there is a small chance you could
have a semibluffing hand. Also, if you draw two to trips,
some of your opponents may not even pay you off with two
pairs but will do so when you draw one.

[Al Mirpuri]

[ QUOTE ]
You played the hand "normally" and your opponent made some
clear errors as mentioned by others. You discarded the
"normal" card because of the reasons you mentioned. Of
course, if you did catch a boat, checkraising should be
clear.

Your opponent made a mistake by not open raising with JJ.
Is he oblivious that you could just have something like
AK/AQ/KQ and get lucky to make a bigger pair (not to mention
many other scenarios).

It is also ridiculous that he is drawing one card to a pair
given the action. He's obviously oblivious that you are
automatically checking to him and letting him bluff off some
more chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I played standard 'tag' and villain played badly but I was more interested in the fact that he changed his line of play mid-hand than anything else. Hence, the title of the orginal post.