river bet on scary board?

mongidig · #1 07-25-2007, 09:50 PM

Live temporarily 5 handed 20-40. The game has been very loose and aggressive.

Two players limp, and I raise on button with KsQc, both blinds call and the rest call.

The flop: JdQsKs

Checked to player on my right who bets(Loose but a little passive), I raise, folded to early limper(solide player nothing great though) who three bets, player on my right folds, I call.

The turn: JdQsKsAs

He checks, I check

The river:JdQsKsAs7c

He checks....Would you bet it here? I really don't have that great of a read on him.

Feal free to comment on all parts of this hand.

sharpie · #2 07-25-2007, 10:50 PM

Pretty easy value bet. I think we're ahead quite a bit on the turn, but would he calldown with QJ/KJ on this board?

Captain R · #3 07-25-2007, 10:51 PM

I would bet river. Thinking back, his most likely hand is QJ. He just limped preflop from EP, so he has either QJ or AT, but he didn't bet turn, so you can rule out AT.

He didn't raise preflop and 3-bet you on the flop, so this rules out AJ and AQ.

Based on all this, you should be able to bet the turn too.

KitCloudkicker · #4 07-25-2007, 11:46 PM

depending on villain, i either like your turn check or dislike it.

i bet riv

PokerBob · #5 07-25-2007, 11:54 PM

bet that [censored].

AragornX151 · #6 07-25-2007, 11:58 PM

Bet the turn. You have tons of outs if you're check-raised, and you're often betting for value. As played, bet river.

PokerBob · #7 07-26-2007, 12:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Bet the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think betting the turn sucks a big wang.

ProfessorBen · #8 07-26-2007, 12:03 AM

Deck has 2 Ks. Call floor.

AragornX151 · #9 07-26-2007, 12:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bet the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think betting the turn sucks a big wang.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? The worst that happens is you get check-raised with tons of outs. And I almost NEVER see weak live players go for c/r's here when there's a 4-straight on board. They almost always bet out, especially if there's a 3-flush there. However, players DO call with crap aces here, like A9 with 9s. I think it's definitely a +EV bet on the turn. You also might run into JQ.

All this said, I think a check is OK too, depending on the opponent; if this type of player is a frequent check-raiser, I'll check it back and see a free river. As played, a river bet is a must, as any ace or lesser two pair is calling.

AragornX151 · #10 07-26-2007, 12:23 AM

OK, I was somehow ignoring that there are two Ks in the deck. I was obviously and brilliantly assuming you were betting middle 2 + nut flush draw. With just middle two, I definitely check the turn back.