Live 3/6 hand: help with counting outs

[BDP]

I played 3/6 full kill live for the first time last night. the game was very loose, I guess typical for low limit. anyway, I get dealt AAQdJd in mp so I limp. 5-6 players to the flop. KTx flop with two clubs. bb checks, woman before me bets out, I....

here's my question: I have an OESD, but two of my outs are in my hand and two more are most likely no good(the 9c and the Ac) so really I only have 4 outs to make my straight making the draw essentially a gutshot. Am I right and is this the correct way to think about outs in a situation like this?

Thanks!

[ QUOTE ]
I played 3/6 full kill live for the first time last night. the game was very loose, I guess typical for low limit. anyway, I get dealt AAQdJd in mp so I limp. 5-6 players to the flop. KTx flop with two clubs. bb checks, woman before me bets out, I....

here's my question: I have an OESD, but two of my outs are in my hand and two more are most likely no good(the 9c and the Ac) so really I only have 4 outs to make my straight making the draw essentially a gutshot. Am I right and is this the correct way to think about outs in a situation like this?

Thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

NO



First you do not have an OESD. You have a wrap.

wrap>OESD BTW

You will make the nut str8 with any AQJ9,

There are 2A, 3Q,3J,4 9's in the deck left making a total of 12 outs. Discount the 9/J/Q/A c and that leaves you with 8 outs. This is sufficient equity to call in this spot with this many limpers. If the other card on board is a diamond count 1 more out for the backdoor flushdraw. The Ac is a tricky out as it makes a set but meh not much more value anyway.

[Buzz]

BDP - You have 12 straight outs (2 aces, 3 queens, 3 jacks and 4 nines), but 4 of them are clubs. But you don't necessarily lose because it may happen that nobody has a club draw, or somebody may fold a non-nut club draw. I think you probably come close to breaking even if you make your straight on the turn or river but the board also flushes or pairs on the river. (If the turn flushes or pairs on the turn and you haven't yet made your straight, then you fold. If the board flushes on the turn and you also make your straight on the turn then you have to play poker.)

As a first approximation, I'd simply not count the four clubs that make your straight one way or the other. Thus roughly 8 for and 33 against, or roughly 4 to 1 against you on the turn. And then if you miss but the board doesn't flush or pair, roughly 4 to 1 against you again on the river.

That's admittedly crude.

Buzz