could i have played this better? 44 deep vs LP opener

[bigchips HI]

exactly on money bubble, villian just doubled up shoving 77 from EP with 13bb's and getting called by KQ. table is playing tight passive.

I dont think I considered the risk vs reward enough here. would love to hear what some of you tend to do in spots like this... fold pf?

Seat 1: RasA86 (12520 in chips)
Seat 2: lil riffy (16544 in chips)
Seat 3: SevenToes (20515 in chips) <-----VILLIAN
Seat 5: caligastor (16231 in chips)
Seat 6: bigchipshi (51880 in chips) <-----ME, top 5 stack
Seat 7: fussel101 (5292 in chips)
Seat 8: Pelsen85 (30055 in chips)
Seat 9: j.thaddeus (31495 in chips)


RasA86: posts the ante 100
lil riffy: posts the ante 100
SevenToes: posts the ante 100
caligastor: posts the ante 100
bigchipshi: posts the ante 100
fussel101: posts the ante 100
Pelsen85: posts the ante 100
j.thaddeus: posts the ante 100
bigchipshi: posts small blind 500
fussel101: posts big blind 1000


*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bigchipshi [4s 4d]
Pelsen85: folds
j.thaddeus: folds
RasA86: folds
lil riffy: folds
SevenToes: raises 4000 to 5000
caligastor: folds
bigchipshi: raises to 25,000

[imabigdeal]

i like it except when he snap calls with KK. lol, seriously though i like it for the obvious reason that you're on the money bubble and that could cause him to lay down a hand he otherwise might call with. even if you lose, you still have over 30k... and if he calls and you win you're monster stack. as for you fold pf question, i would absolutely never do this, i think calling and set mining or pushing a crap flop would be ok also. again i would push though

[illini43]

Let's do a little math:

Let's say he is raising 77+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo. If you re-raise him all-in, let's say he will call with the top ~44% of THAT range, so: TT+,AQs+,AKo.

Ok, so if he is raising with that range, he will fold about 56% of the time and you will win his 5000 chips raise + 2300 chips already in the pot (let's ignore the BB's chips if he wakes up with AA for simplicity sake). So, 56% of the time you make this raise, he will fold and you will win 7300 chips.

44% of the time he will call. He will call with the hands in this range: TT+,AQs+,AKo, and 32% of the time you will win the pot, while 68% of the time you will lose.

So, when you win the pot, you will win an additional 22800 chips and add them to your stack. When you lose, you will lose ~20000 chips.

So:

.32 x 22800 = 7296

.68 x 20000 = 13600

The 44% of the time you get called, you will have a net chips expectation of (7296 - 13600) or -6304.

The 56% of the time you win the pot, you will win 7300 chips.

So, on average, this move has an expectation of:

.56 x 7300 = 4088

.44 x -6304 = -2773.

Overall, you have a net gain of ~1315 chips by making this move.

This math might be alittle sloppy because I am going to sleep and I haven't read HOH2 in awhile.

So basically, a push is +cEV and has extra meaning because it is on the bubble.

[gobboboy]

Your open raise size is disgusting. you have no reason to make it 5x. Once you make it this big, fold, his resteal range against you isn't very big.

[imabigdeal]

[ QUOTE ]
Your open raise size is disgusting. you have no reason to make it 5x. Once you make it this big, fold, his resteal range against you isn't very big.

[/ QUOTE ]

gobboboy you mixed up villain and hero

[THEOSU]

this is what the bubble's for.

[ZJ123]

standard.

[DeMaci]

Seems totally standard.

[8Adam8]

fold to additional 515 chip raise though

[betgo]

I would fold. The 5xBB for 1/4 of his stack is a subtle hint villain isn't folding to a reraise, and it is about 50% he has a higher pp.