|
|
#1
07-19-2007, 10:38 PM
|
|||
|
|||
QLD Today
Anyone find it strange that the QLD which is supposed to return twice the daily performance of the NASDAQ 100 Index was only up .4% while the NASDAQ was up .8%?
Tomorrow will surely be a down day with the numbers Google came out with,I'd be intrested to know if there are any patterns that take place when there is a divergence between the performance of the QLD comapred to the NASDAQ. 
|
|
#2
07-20-2007, 12:50 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: QLD Today
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone find it strange that the QLD which is supposed to return twice the daily performance of the NASDAQ 100 Index was only up .4% while the NASDAQ was up .8%? Tomorrow will surely be a down day with the numbers Google came out with,I'd be intrested to know if there are any patterns that take place when there is a divergence between the performance of the QLD comapred to the NASDAQ. [/ QUOTE ] there was a thread that mentioned this i think about "shorting securities" or something where it was posited that it was very unlikely these "enhanced" or leveraged index funds would be able to track the market in big jumps. now that isn't even a "big jump." historically, huge portions of gains can be attributed to only a select few trading days, so losing out on those days (ESPECIALLY not getting the double from the enhanced fund), costs a ton. Barron
|
|
#3
07-20-2007, 02:55 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
correct reason
the "closing price" of the QLD occurs at 4:15, b/c they trade until then. The change in the NDX you're looking at is from the 4:00 cash close yesterday until current. If you remember, there was big GOOG news out after the close yesterday.
|
|
#4
07-20-2007, 03:08 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: correct reason
[ QUOTE ]
the "closing price" of the QLD occurs at 4:15, b/c they trade until then. The change in the NDX you're looking at is from the 4:00 cash close yesterday until current. If you remember, there was big GOOG news out after the close yesterday. [/ QUOTE ] so did QLD deliver the 2x QQQ move? Barron
|
|
#5
07-20-2007, 04:24 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: QLD Today
With these types of things where they offer a multiple of the performance you are pretty much guaranteed to get a lower return over any time period longer than one day. The key thing is that they shoot for a multiple of the DAILY performance. So once you have more than one day the performance will vary from where it is supposed to be(this is assuming that the security does exactly what it is supposed to do, you're going to have fees then I assume there is a cost of leverage)
So say you have a stock that is supposed to do 2x the return of the S&P 500 and you measure it over 2 days: On Day 1 the S&P 500 starts at 1000 and closes at 1100. On Day 2 the index closes down at 1000 again. So after 2 days you have a gain of zero on the index. But on the stock you will have a gain of 20% since the index was up 10%. On day 2 you have a loss of 18.18% on the new value since the S&P was down 9.09%. If you work out the math and say the stock started at 100 then you have 120 after day 1, but then after day 2 you get 98.18. So market is flat, but you are down 1.82%. I used such big moves because they make the point easier to see but over time the difference between ideal and reality is going to get bigger and bigger, and the more volatile the market is day to day the bigger the difference will be.
|
|
#7
07-20-2007, 07:16 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: correct reason
No, you misunderstood my post. At 4:00 QLD was priced fairly to where the NDX Index was at 4:00. At 4:15, when futures were lower (on GOOG news), QLD was also lower b/c NDX futures were indicating that the new fair value in the NDX index was lower. QLD was trading roughly inline at both times.
|
|
#10
07-20-2007, 07:43 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: correct reason
to be honest, i wasn't watching it. I do know it was fair at 4:00 and fair at 4:15. I assume if they were actively trading, they were fair inbetween those two times.
big size trades in this product so it's pretty efficient.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
