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#1
07-20-2007, 01:49 PM
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Bluffing with 99 against a likely squeeze, 200nl
For some reason this hand just popped into my head even though it happened a week ago.
240 effec stacks 4-handed, villain seems to be a pretty good solid tag, on the aggro side and had squeezed a few times in the last few orbits when I raised otb and a weaker, tagfish type player cold called in the SB, I have folded preflop each time. We are both on 3-4 other tables and havent really got involved in many big pots, he hasnt seen me do anything crazy and seems to respect my play somewhat although I am opening a _lot_ of hands on this shorthanded table. So in this hand I open on the button ($7) with 99, tagfish SB calls and villain in the bb 3bets to $30. It felt a lot like a squeeze given the history and timing, so I call, SB folds. Flop ($67) A 5 3 rainbow He bets $55 (larger than usual) and I shove pretty quickly. Thoughts? Quite possibly its spew and I should fold pre but it seemed like a good flop to take a stand with. 
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#2
07-20-2007, 01:55 PM
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Re: Bluffing with 99 against a likely squeeze, 200nl
Good Lord...spewy as hell. Seriously, he may be aggro, but do you honestly think that you have him beat after that flop? He at least has an Ace or a bigger pair. Maybe he has KK or QQ and spewed when the Ace hit the board, but that STILL has you destroyed. Lay the thing down on the flop, if not before.
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#3
07-20-2007, 02:00 PM
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Re: Bluffing with 99 against a likely squeeze, 200nl
WTF @ folding 99 to a squeeze from an aggro player 4-handed. PF is fine.
As for the flop, folding isn't a bad option. But it does seem weird that someone with an A would bet so large into a dry flop like that. Still, I think I'd let it go b/c I hate knowing I'm drawing to 2 outs if called.
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#4
07-20-2007, 02:02 PM
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Re: Bluffing with 99 against a likely squeeze, 200nl
This is OK.
He's folding so much of his range here. In this situation I probably would have just called and bet when checked to on the turn, but this is fine to do too. With his bet size (he bet enough that effect stacks on turn will be one PSB), he either has random air, or he bet the flop that size because he wanted to make the turn < PSB AI looking for value with his AK or whatever. I think. People squeeze in this spot so [censored] much.
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#5
07-20-2007, 02:02 PM
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Re: Bluffing with 99 against a likely squeeze, 200nl
[ QUOTE ]
Good Lord...spewy as hell. Seriously, he may be aggro, but do you honestly think that you have him beat after that flop? He at least has an Ace or a bigger pair. Maybe he has KK or QQ and spewed when the Ace hit the board, but that STILL has you destroyed. Lay the thing down on the flop, if not before. [/ QUOTE ] i don't think this is that bad, but it would be better if we were a little deeper. he will be hard pressed to call w/KK/QQ here.
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#6
07-20-2007, 02:03 PM
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Re: Bluffing with 99 against a likely squeeze, 200nl
[ QUOTE ]
Good Lord...spewy as hell. Seriously, he may be aggro, but do you honestly think that you have him beat after that flop? He at least has an Ace or a bigger pair. Maybe he has KK or QQ and spewed when the Ace hit the board, but that STILL has you destroyed. Lay the thing down on the flop, if not before. [/ QUOTE ] As per the thread title I am bluffing here, its not a value shove.
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#7
07-20-2007, 02:14 PM
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Re: Bluffing with 99 against a likely squeeze, 200nl
[ QUOTE ]
Good Lord...spewy as hell. Seriously, he may be aggro, but do you honestly think that you have him beat after that flop? He at least has an Ace or a bigger pair. Maybe he has KK or QQ and spewed when the Ace hit the board, but that STILL has you destroyed. Lay the thing down on the flop, if not before. [/ QUOTE ] you do realize that the vast majority of the time he has j8s or something here, right?
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#8
07-20-2007, 02:24 PM
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Re: Bluffing with 99 against a likely squeeze, 200nl
If Villain has squeezed twice in the last few orbits it makes his range much, much tighter on this third squeeze. Esp. so because you say he's a good/solid TAG. Which makes this play weaker given the reduced range, but I still think it's OK.
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#9
07-20-2007, 02:27 PM
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Re: Bluffing with 99 against a likely squeeze, 200nl
His overbet on the flop is very scary on this board texture. He knows you know he's squeezed multiple times so he probably doesn't have much. So he's probably expecting you to play back at him since you seem to be taking a stand this hand. There's a decent chance he actually did run into an ace this hand and is trying to induce exactly what you give him.
That said, if you still want to go for it here then I would float the flop, pot the turn if he checks / shove over a weakish bet / probably fold if he bets real. I believe this seems more legitimate.
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