Empirical/play based hold'em odds?

[pendragon]

I once saw a page at a Texas hold'em site where one could find the pre-flop hand odds or pot equity based on actual hands played, rather than theoretical calculations. I don't know what this site is anymore though.

Anyone know where info like this might be available?

[pendragon]

I also remember the site in question had the data broken down by position, and number of players.

[xxbeanxx]

http://www.pokerroom.com/poker/poker...by-players.php
maybe what you're looking for, I dunno

[PantsOnFire]

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...pre-flop hand odds or pot equity based on actual hands played, rather than theoretical calculations.

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Just so you know, running a computer simulation through the various hand combinations is the only way to do this. There is no "theoretical" way.

Perhaps you are thinking of hand rankings. You can calculate the probability of being dealt a royal flush in five cards or with two hole cards and five community cards. When they run simulations to test this, they are actually testing the randomness of the computer dealing algorithm. So after millions of dealt hands, the frequency of royal flushs appearing should be close to the calculated value.

When trying to figure out pot equity for a given starting hand versus x number of opponents, you must run a computer simulation. For example, you hold 72off and you are against one opponent. Now the computer will give the opponent every possible hand and go through every possible five board cards using the remaining 50 cards in the deck. Once all the possible combinations are done, you can figure out how many times 72off won and thus the percentage of the time it will win against a random hand. This is want Pokerstove does.

Keep in mind that these calculations are done for five community cards. In other words, it is assumed that the two players are all-in and there is no more betting.

Sorry for rambling there, I probably didn't even answer your question but I have happy keyboard fingers right now.

[ev_slave]

Any stats like this are going to be flawed due to player tendencies. An expert player will be able to lose less or win more with certain cards than mediocre players. Are these EV figures when an expert plays vs. a table of donks? Experts vs. Experts? Donks vs. Donks? Maybe this is how one particular guy's style of play has won or loss with each card combination in whichever positions? The uncertainty about what the hell is going on in deriving these numbers makes them useless. Even if we did know, what actually happens would be different for any one person since everyone plays differently (at least slightly) than everyone else.

[PantsOnFire]

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Any stats like this are going to be flawed due to player tendencies. An expert player will be able to lose less or win more with certain cards than mediocre players. Are these EV figures when an expert plays vs. a table of donks? Experts vs. Experts? Donks vs. Donks? Maybe this is how one particular guy's style of play has won or loss with each card combination in whichever positions? The uncertainty about what the hell is going on in deriving these numbers makes them useless. Even if we did know, what actually happens would be different for any one person since everyone plays differently (at least slightly) than everyone else.

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I think these stats refer to hot a cold runnings. It's the same as heads up matchups like AA vs. KK is 80% for AA. However, that means AA will win 80% of the time when all five cards are played. Obviously, if there is not an all-in, then the flop will change those numbers. And as you point out, good players have a better idea of how those numbers have changed.

The hot and cold (all-in) situations come up late in a tournament usually (or any other shortstack scenario). For example, the BB has post 1000 and has 1000 left. It is folded to the SB. He knows at worst he will have to put in 1500 to win a 4000 pot. His pot odds are 2.67:1 so he needs about 27% hand equity. The lowest hand vs two random cards is 32off and while I don't have the numbers with me, I believe this hand does better than 27% against a random hand. So the move by SB is to go all-in with any two cards.

[pendragon]

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http://www.pokerroom.com/poker/poker...by-players.php
maybe what you're looking for, I dunno

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Wow I think that is what I what looking for...I'm not sure if it's the same site (probably is) but it does seem to be the same exact thing. Thanks a lot [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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Just so you know, running a computer simulation through the various hand combinations is the only way to do this. There is no "theoretical" way.

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A simuation would be more of a theoretical way of finding odds. This page says it has empirical odds based on what starting hand had actually won how often in a given situation (# of players and position), based on play of hands at their online site.
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Any stats like this are going to be flawed due to player tendencies. An expert player will be able to lose less or win more with certain cards than mediocre players.

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Certainly this would be an issue, but I remember the data being very fascinating to go through. In many ways the theoretical odds based on math and simulation might be more appropriate, especially because some of the data here might be skewed due to rarity of certain cards/# of players/position combinations, but I still find the data very interesting.

Thanks for the helpful responses everyone [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]