strong drawing hands OOP, multiway, on the turn

[TxRedMan]

Here's a hand from last night. Lot of good hands last night. Preflop might be a little sketchy, but here's the jist of it:

One MP limper, CO limps, Button limps, I complete the SB with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], BB checks option.

Flop

K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet, BB folds, all three limpers call.

Turn

Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

A little bit of background on the limpers. Limper 1 is solid, limper 2 is playing solid at the moment, and is one of the more aggressive players in the game. Limper 3 rarely ever gets out of line, almost always has a hand, until he realizes people realize this and then he might try stealing something once in a while.

So, this turn card is very likely to have made somebody top two, and I feel like with three callers a lot of the time someone has the nut low draw. I dont want the turn to get checked through, I'd prefer exactly one bet go in on the turn, but I also don't want to get raised on this turn card. The good news is that the player most likely to raise is in the middle, but if the first limper raises the turn he'll likely get it head-up with me, or if one of the other players calls, I'm usually drawing at a 3 or a non-board pairing diamond.

Reasons for betting the turn?

Reasons for check calling?

Another point of view: If you did check, and there was a bet and a raise, how close is it now? Consider that the ranges for the bettor and the raiser are smaller than what you might think.

Edit: obviously i'd be happy with as many bets as possible going in on the turn if all three limpers went along for the ride, but i'm approaching this from a point of view of the limpers calling down with second bests a lot of the time, so I dont want them getting shut-out, and if they hold the nut-low/nut-low wrap/set they're not going anywhere anyways, so a better hand than mine on the high end or the low end isn't ever folding to two bets here. Thus, in a perfect scenario I'd check-raise all of them when the first limper bets the turn, forcing everyone to get sandwiched inbetween.

edit: i was 90% sure that either the CO or the Button was going to bet this river given my "read".

[Buzz]

Tex – I think you have a small profit expectation with the pairing diamonds. It’s small enough to be dwarfed by the profit expectations of the non-pairing diamonds and the treys, but those two cards are not negatives. (At any rate, I don’t think they are).

And the 10 cards that make the second nut low for you are only slightly negative in expected value, I think.

So very crudely, you have 10 good cards and 22 bad cards. Played over and over, just looking at the bet on the turn, you need two opponents to roughly have an expectation of breaking even in the long run. And you need three opponents to show a profit. With one opponent, you expect to show a loss.

That’s admittedly very crude, but I think it’s in the ballpark.

You’d like to have at least one bet go into the pot this round, but you cannot risk having somebody behind you making it a double bet and knocking out anyone else in the process.

You, of course, obviously realize you have this dilemma, and thus the post.

Goes against the grain to not bet here, but I don’t think you can risk a bet because of the danger of a raise behind you knocking out both opponents. One opponent gone wouldn’t be a disaster, but two gone would be terrible.

Therefore you have to reluctantly check and risk the free card. If nobody behind you bets, you get a free card too, so that checking is not terrible.

[ QUOTE ]
Reasons for betting the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]
1. Your opponents are more likely to make mistakes when pressured.
2. With three opponents, you have a positive expectation. (If they all would be certain to call multiple bets or a check/raise, you should like as much money going into the pot as possible).

[ QUOTE ]
Reasons for check calling?

[/ QUOTE ]
1. There is less risk of losing an opponent to a raise or check/raise when you check/call.
2. Missing an extra bet here is not as costly as losing a customer (and losing two customers is a disaster).
3. You often save a bet yourself.

Buzz

[TxRedMan]

yeah i agree that at this point in the hand, i.e., whether to bet the turn or not, you have to assume board pairing diamonds are profitable, save for maybe the queen, which will usually be a bad card to pair in this spot.

i did check, the turn was bet by my friend who had top two, and everyone did call one bet.

i think i might have made a mistake though. i checked, next player checked, my friend bet, another player called, and i just called. i think this might be a good spot for a check raise with that much money in the pot, and i'm 95% sure that my friend and the other player will just call, and the player in between us will either sometimes be forced to fold a nut low, and if he calls, all the better.

as played the river paired my five and i bet out, and no one called.

edit: buzz, something i wanted to point out to you that may or may not have much importance. i've seen you talk about how nines are the worst card for a hand on more than once occasion. of course i agree, but in a previous thread where the river came a nine, you said that it wasn't as scary of a card as others, iirc. i just wanted to point out that a lot of times people wind up playing hands with a nine in them because they've got A2/A3 or what have you along with them, so i think discounting any type of dangler is dangerous, or presuming that a nine is a safer card than others might prove to be a little presumptuous. kind of a nitty comment, but i was sitting at the table this week and the thought crossed my mind about the way i interpreted your comment, so i thought i'd mention it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Borys313]

I was browsing "Championship Omaha" by Cloutier and McEvoy and found following reasoning.

"Playing a Drawing Hand in a Side Game"

"When you have a strong draw in Omaha high-low and you are in a front position, how far do you take it? I would bet it on flop but Im not saying that I would bet in on fourth street where its a double bet. I like to lead on flop with it thats fine. And if you are playing heads-up, there is nothing wrong with leading at it again on fourth street. But if I am in a multiway pot, I shut down on fourth.

You see when you are against only one other guy, betting on fourth sets up a bet on fifth street if you think he is going low. But against two or three other players, beting on fourth street doesnt set anything up for you. One of your opponents might be playing low, so you are in a different situation. I am not saying that you dont call, just dont lead at the pot. Actually, you are hoping to get a free card."

That what the so called pros think. And I fell pretty much the same way. You are not going to fool them all that you have a clinch right now, you have to show them a hand. So the main objective is to keep the pot multiway, to get max value when you hit. If its gonna checked around its only a minor problem comparing to bet,raise and others fold. And it additionaly gives you some deception when you make the flush, people with 2 pair will pay you off more often when you were not leading at any moment and then bet out when a scare card comes.

[Buzz]

Hi Borys - They don't seem to be giving much consideration to individual differences. And they don't seem to be giving much consideration to pot size.

[ QUOTE ]
So the main objective is to keep the pot multiway, to get max value when you hit.

[/ QUOTE ]I agree. But that seems to be your conclusion, not theirs.

[ QUOTE ]
And it additionaly gives you some deception when you make the flush,

[/ QUOTE ]I disagree. I think the opposite is true. Well... let me somewhat take that back. I think it depends on how you are perceived by your active opponents. But generally, when you bet the board's third diamond, it looks like you maybe have the diamond flush. (But I suppose if you bet the opposite of what you really have all the time, it doesn't).

[ QUOTE ]
people with 2 pair will pay you off more often when you were not leading at any moment and then bet out when a scare card comes.

[/ QUOTE ]I think it depends on the people with 2 pair.

Buzz

[TxRedMan]

I just want to mention that I nominated Buzz for moderator a long time ago.

My foresight is unrivaled.