River value bets are my biggest leak

[ddubois]

Villain is a huge 68/5 fish, wtsd 38. His range on the flop is any pair, any draw at all. And OMG, don't ever try to bluff him off top pair, even when the board runner runners ace king.

My bet sizes are ridiculous because I know the fish will call. I considered going even larger preflop. (I actually went 90 from the SB 15 minutes later with AA and got a lot of action from TPTK, although not as much as a I should have because I wussed out when board paired middle card on turn.)

Poker Stars
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$5/$10 Blinds
5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $990.00
BB: $1,097.00
UTG: $3,805.75
Hero (CO): $2,093.00
BTN: $2,087.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG calls $10.00, <font color="red">Hero raises to $55.00</font>, BTN calls $55.00, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls $45.00

Flop: ($180) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $175.00</font>, BTN folds, UTG calls $175.00

Turn: ($530) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $525.00</font>, UTG calls $525.00

River: ($1580) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero swears and?

How does the likelihood of him holding a nine change, given his river check? I mean, it's hard to imagine a reasonably transparent-playing fish going for a CR when they hit their obvious gin card, right? So if he has a busted gutshot, he's not going to call, maybe A2/57/etc, gives me something? But how much? Or maybe he has TT and will call a shove. How much value is missed by checking, and what hands will call what amounts? The idea of going 750 and folding to a min-raise appalls me. But maybe I could bet 300 to either a) induce a bluff raise or b) get called light?

[muxplust]

check

[DJ Sensei]

a non-shove bet is the worst option here, because he can either bluff you out or you'll stack off when he's ahead a lot.

changed my mind, i want to shove here now since he'll show up with mad pocket pairs and stuff.

[Pasterbator]

i think i like to bet 700 and fold to a push, as ugly as it sounds.

against this guy, you gottsta get value from random hands like A5, 77, TT and whatever else he could have.

pffft, maybe even push.

the board didnt get any scarier and hes not folding any piece, as you said, so i'd take advantage of that.

i want to push.

there, i said it. push.


edit: i changed my mind back to 700. do that.

[mythrilfox]

yeah i think checking here is fine. i don't think a check rules out a 9 on his part, and middle/bottom pair become less and less likely every street, and they may not even call a river bet.

[stan ivey]

GO ALL IN JESUS

[stan ivey]

omg seriously he has JJ-TT, 88-66, A5, 5dXd, A4, WHATEVER so often here if he is 68/5, 38 wtsd.......omg push ..........wtf

[stan ivey]

rest of hand played perfectly, u can prob even bet more than pot, but this still sets up a perfect riv push (its like 1300 into 1600)

[Jason Strasser (strassa2)]

jesus, bet. a nine is a small part of his range

[Ship Ship McGipp]

[ QUOTE ]
jesus, bet. a nine is a small part of his range

[/ QUOTE ]

and it looks like an amazing card for the rest of his range