Did I overvalue my read?

Bona · #1 07-15-2007, 04:20 PM

I have a pretty good read on this player because I have over 500 hands with him. He plays a tight, but not very aggressive game preflop and a very tight game postflop. 18/6/2.3 after 545 hands. He sort of blurs the line between TAG and rock. I do not recall ever seeing him showdown light or bet/fold the turn or river. He uses c/r a lot on the turn (50% per PT) I am sure he multitables because I seem to sit with him a lot when I play this level. Villain may well be some one who is reading this. Anyway, here is the hand. and my question.

Did I use my read appropriately or should I have taken this hand farther?

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB calls.

Turn: (5.20 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 7.20 BB

TarHeel100 · #2 07-15-2007, 04:27 PM

Well, it's hard to see what you could be ahead of here. Seeing that he is tight preflop, he is probably 3-betting you with either AK, AQs, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT.

Based on the the flop play and turn c/r, I think we can probably narrow his range down to AK, AA, KK, or JJ. I know that's a narrow range, but what other hands does he check raise with? I doubt he does it with AQ and I'm positive he doesn't do it with QQ.

I would say you are safe to fold this.

tyler_cracker · #3 07-15-2007, 04:29 PM

you are wa/wb. play accordingly.

Shillx · #4 07-15-2007, 04:30 PM

Well this is really ugly [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Bona · #5 07-15-2007, 04:33 PM

I'm not sure whether you mean my play or the board. If it's my play please help me out and show me the way. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

jhuttunen · #6 07-15-2007, 04:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
....I would say you are safe to fold this.

[/ QUOTE ]

How about call down. Folding here too weak?

Bona · #7 07-15-2007, 04:36 PM

Yeah OK. So that means I should probably call down from the flop? Right?

bozlax · #8 07-15-2007, 04:36 PM

Responding blind: oh, yeah, terrible.

Having read your post: LOL. What hands do you think this guy 3-bombs from the BB in a non-steal situation? Of that range, how much are you ahead of on the flop? If you've seen him get tricky on his oop flop/turn lines (like it looks here) you can justify (maybe) the flop raise being for a free card, but then once he offers it you need to take it when you don't catch your gutshot on the turn.

(fwiw, your only outs are the tens...aces and queens don't help you at all.)

bozlax · #9 07-15-2007, 04:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you are wa/wb. play accordingly.

[/ QUOTE ]

He is not WA/WB, Tyler. It's nowhere near 50/50.

Shillx · #10 07-15-2007, 04:38 PM

Your equity is in the tank on this board. It seems like a lot of you guys play hands way to fast without even considering your opponents range & board texture. What do you beat besides QQ on this board? I'd call the flop and then gladly check behind on the turn if he checks to me. As played you better be checking behind on the turn.