WSOP ME: Nut flush draw

ryanghall · #1 07-13-2007, 05:21 AM

200/400/50. I have 28K, Villain covers.

Villain has been at the table for around 45 minutes. He was quite tight for the 1st half of the time and has played several pots in the 2nd half.

Folded to me in the CO and I make it 1200 w/ A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8x. Folded to Villain who calls in the BB.

Flop is Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or something like that.

Villain checks, I bet 2300. He raises to 5500. I push.

Good or bad? (probably just second guessing myself)

Mr.WeakTight · #2 07-13-2007, 05:42 AM

you've got 9 outs to the flush, 3 more if a pair of aces beats him; there's 11,000k in the pot. his range is 77, 44, made flush (in which case you have only 7 flush outs unless he has 5c6c then you only have 5 outs), less likely Q7, KK AA AKc, and less likely still, 2 napkins. assume 10 outs, about 3-1 and you're betting about 18 to win 11k (if he folds), or 29k to win 57k if he calls so those are favorable odds. plus there's the chance he'll fold.

if you call and wait for the turn, you'll have less fold equity if you miss. overall, I like the push. and i like the way you played the hand.

8Adam8 · #3 07-13-2007, 05:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
his range is 77, 44, made flush, Q7, KK AA AKc, 2 napkins.

[/ QUOTE ]

ummm, what?

nath · #4 07-13-2007, 05:57 AM

I mean, I don't think a push with a draw to the nuts is ever that wrong

cakewalk · #5 07-13-2007, 07:14 AM

he'll probably fold top set face up and say you flopped the nut flush

curtains · #6 07-13-2007, 07:51 AM

I'd often check behind the flop but if I thought a 3 bet allin had very good fold equity, then I'd definitely bet the flop.

djk123 · #7 07-13-2007, 07:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I mean, I don't think a push with a draw to the nuts is ever that wrong

[/ QUOTE ]

uclabruinz · #8 07-13-2007, 11:33 AM

While I agree with Nath to some extent, here's the thing. There's about 10.8k in the pot when villain minraises us. We have to call 2.7k, so we are getting pretty close to 4:1 on a call with the nut flush draw. Sometimes the express odds are so enticing that shoving a nut flush draw with little FE is not the best move.

I'm not sure what the most +EV move is here, but I think sometimes we have a tendency to think, "NFD, we must find a way to shove the flop" when there are other, perhaps better, alternatives.

5_year_old_bully · #9 07-13-2007, 02:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you've got 9 outs to the flush, 3 more if a pair of aces beats him; there's 11,000k in the pot. his range is 77, 44, made flush (in which case you have only 7 flush outs unless he has 5c6c then you only have 5 outs), less likely Q7, KK AA AKc, and less likely still, 2 napkins. assume 10 outs, about 3-1 and you're betting about 18 to win 11k (if he folds), or 29k to win 57k if he calls so those are favorable odds. plus there's the chance he'll fold.

if you call and wait for the turn, you'll have less fold equity if you miss. overall, I like the push. and i like the way you played the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please stop posting strategy advice.

It would be one thing if you were a winning player at this level and were posting an unconventional line. It is another thing to have a clearly rudimentary understanding of the game and be posting bad advice.

You are not helping anyone by offering up bad advice. Please do not post strategy (but feel free to ask questions!) until you are at least a break even player at these levels; or until you at least have played at these levels.

s33w33d · #10 07-13-2007, 02:17 PM

The call is really tempting due to pot size.

The raise is really tempting because shoving is always really tempting.

I don't know who would win out. I'm a huge nit so maybe I'd just call and re-eval. I don't like shipping >20% of my hand though if a non-A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] shows up, though.