AQ, 5NL, Do I trust my gut?

Peleus · #1 07-13-2007, 09:02 AM

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.01/$0.02
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $4.57
UTG+1: $8.55
MP1: $5.81
MP2: $4.97
MP3: $0.50
CO: $13.30
Button: $0.47
SB: $2.42
BB: $0.37

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero raises to $0.08, 2 folds, MP2 raises to $0.2, MP3 folds, CO calls, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($0.63, 3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $0.3, CO folds, Hero calls.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($1.23, 2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $0.6, Hero raises to $1.8, MP2 raises all-in $4.47, Hero calls all-in $2.27.
Uncalled bets: $0.4 returned to MP2.

River: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($9.37, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $9.37)

Results:
Final pot: $9.37

Hi all,

Reads - Only 7 hands with villain, 14 odd vpip so probably only played one other hand. On that almost irrelevant sample size not a maniac.

Pre-flop - In EP but I still want to raise, half narrow the board and also to have the option of a stronger c-bet on the flop if I miss it. Opinions on amount? More? MP2 re-raises, I call with the intention of bet/folding the flop to a re raise if it comes low.

Flop - Not a bad flop for me, I check because I feel he was going to bet out, at least as a c-bet, which he did. At this stage my gut was really telling me AK. Straight forward play for this hand, but I couldn't rule out another decent PP and this is a c-bet. As such I simply call, I don't know where I am at.

Turn - Q. Good card for me I feel. Again I suspect AK, so this might help me out a lot. I want to let him take control again to get some more money in the pot, also gives me a chance to check raise. If I'm right he'll want to call down or shove, which is good for me. He does in fact shove, although I do think about it for a bit. Would this be a trap playing aces this way? Either way I obviously call as you can see.

Firstly, please feel free to comment on any of my streets or though process's.

Secondly though my question is this. My gut told me AK on the flop bet, am I still right in calling this? It is a very very specific hand to put him on, with very little information. If I'm right I'm behind, and I should fold, because I'm still dominated. If I'm wrong, I'm potentially folding on a lot of hands I have beat (majority of Ax / QQ / KK etc).

I suppose experience will show me the answer to this in time, but how much faith should I put in fairly specific gut reads. Should I try and put them on ranges, rather then hands itself?

Thanks for any comments, appreciated.

Dr_Doctr · #2 07-13-2007, 09:23 AM

It's a pretty small raise preflop but I would still muck it there - unless he's doing this a lot and then calling is fine. AQ is not the kind of hand you want to be calling a 3-bet OOP with. As played you played it fine imo. 'Gut reads' are useless, at least online. Put the Villian on a range of hands given the action in the hand so far etc. 'Gut reads' tend to be the result of people doing exactly this badly.

paulnic · #3 07-13-2007, 10:15 AM

once the queen comes your sort of committed imo. there isnt much of a better card than that for you but u still could be up against a set also...

Jaqrabbit · #4 07-13-2007, 10:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
It's a pretty small raise preflop but I would still muck it there - unless he's doing this a lot and then calling is fine. AQ is not the kind of hand you want to be calling a 3-bet OOP with. As played you played it fine imo. 'Gut reads' are useless, at least online. Put the Villian on a range of hands given the action in the hand so far etc. 'Gut reads' tend to be the result of people doing exactly this badly.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I agree with this, necessarily. If AQ isn't good enough to call a 3-bet with OOP, what is? Are we basically only calling a 3-bet with QQ+? How about AK, is that worth calling a 3-bet with, regardless of position? I think I call the 3-bet, and see where I'm at on the flop.

Post flop, I like the play. If he's got a set here, you're screwed, but that's far from the only hand he could be on. I wouldn't fold top two on a board like this unless I had an excellent read that I was beat, and you can't get that on someone online in 7 hands.

Regarding the "gut" feeling - while your guess may have been correct this time (or not, I don't know), I think putting an opponent on a specific hand based solely on a hunch is probably not a good idea as a general rule. Figuring out what range of hands is likely, and which of the hands that beat you he's likely to be holding is a better approach, I think.