Line check with AA on flop and turn?

HBomb · #1 07-10-2007, 09:23 AM

Opponent is what seems to be a new regular at $50 NL lately and plays fairly well and doesn't get out of line all that much from what I've seen.

Is folding AA here this deep into the hate incorrect? What kind of line do you think he is taking? Do you think he takes into consideration that I may also very well have a set also?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Button ($56.70)
SB ($29)
BB ($65.35)
Hero ($54.65)
MP ($47.25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $1.5, 3 folds, BB calls $1.

Flop: ($3.25) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $3, Hero raises to $11.5, BB calls $8.50.

Turn: ($26.25) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $20, BB raises to $52.35, Hero?

Edit: I realize that my 1.50 raise from UTG was rather small, but I was just hoping to induce a reraise from one of several guys at our table by doing so.

paulnic · #2 07-10-2007, 09:33 AM

what makes u think he doesnt have AQ or AK diamonds. im calling here unless villain is super tight. at this level many players fall in love with TPTK. i shove.

the more i look at it the more his strong betting does sugest a strong hand however many players will play there strong draws the same way.
interested to see other comments

Poker Jon · #3 07-10-2007, 09:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
what makes u think he doesnt have AQ or AK diamonds. im calling here unless villain is super tight. at this level many players fall in love with TPTK. i shove.

the more i look at it the more his strong betting does sugest a strong hand however many players will play there strong draws the same way.
interested to see other comments

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree pretty much with everything here.

You have invested a lot of your stack, to fold AA here. He could have a huge combo draw, and AQs KQs is a big part of his range.

You have to call here IMO

Jon

maccamack · #4 07-10-2007, 10:05 AM

There's no need to get tricky with constant three bettors pre-flop. Put in your normal raise and let them come over the top of you if they want.

You have to call the all in. You will see KK, AQ, two diamonds etc often enough I think. Having said that, villian is taking a terrible line with a draw, I think he wants a call (meaning you are beat), unfortunately you have to oblige - getting near enough 4-1.

ama0330 · #5 07-10-2007, 10:46 AM

If you bet you have to call, bet folding here is gross. He never calls the flop then c/f turn unless he's realllly bad, which is unlikely given your description. If you dont want to stack off on this turn then check behind and call a river bet.

KEW · #6 07-10-2007, 10:46 AM

I am folding..Villain line looks like the classic "stack-a-donk" with a set...

Holding the A makes it more unlikely that villain is CRAI with a pair + FD that he picked up on the turn..Based on your read I feel if villlain had a pair + FD on the flop he would know to shove it in on the flop when he had the highest equity..OP has shown strength at every chance a villain does not care...

HBomb · #7 07-10-2007, 01:55 PM

For what it's worth, villian decided to call flop reraise and shove turn here with 7d8d, if only I could log onto a site that does %'s I could see how far my AA are still ahead going to the river... but since I'm at work, there's only a few poker sources this network lets me view.

HBomb · #8 07-12-2007, 11:22 AM

Bumping this for a reason... does anyone know how often the villian would have to make me fold here to make this a profitable play? And say if I call maybe 80% of the time, how does that change things? I got into this topic on my own forums and was wondering if someone could give me a formula towards figuring out EV situations. Oh, by the way, if it helps, the guy with 7d8d has 35% chance of winning still going to the river. So, YOU do the math.

Thanks,
HBomb