100nl: river shove with straight

[crunny]

villain is unknown

Hows my river shove? Does he ever call?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $137.20
BB: $61.40
UTG: $100.00
UTG 1: $104.45
MP1: $49.95
MP2: $173.35
MP3: $54.75
Hero (CO): $99.50
BTN: $91.35

Preflop: Hero is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (9 Players)
UTG calls $1.00, 4 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $4.50</font>, 3 folds, UTG calls $3.50

Flop: ($10.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $7.00</font>, UTG calls $7.00

Turn: ($24.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $16.00</font>, UTG calls $16.00

River: ($56.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets all-in for $72.00</font>

[SABR42]

He'll call with a 5, but he's unlikely to have one unless he has 75.

I think I'd bet around $35 to entice a call.

If the river didn't bring a 4-straight I like shoving.

[Eternal]

[ QUOTE ]
He'll call with a 5, but he's unlikely to have one unless he has 75.

I think I'd bet around $35 to entice a call.

If the river didn't bring a 4-straight I like shoving.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's all the answer you need [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[BT2]

i small value bet would be better here. that board is more likely to scare him than make him want to call you.

[diebitter]

[ QUOTE ]
He'll call with a 5, but he's unlikely to have one unless he has 75.

I think I'd bet around $35 to entice a call.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well IMHO $35 s not maximising EV. There's not many hands he'll call 35 and not the all-in here, so the decision should be a small raise for some small extraction, or the all-in, not the middle ground to maximise EV.

I think I prefer $12 or so as the upper limit for extraction, as I can't see him checking with a 5. He might call $12 w/ a high pair or two pair though.

[Erudito]

Sure, if villain is an idiot who hates money. I cannot see how would a donkey call a shove in this situation. Unless he had a 5, but even so, it is very unlikely. You are trying to represent a missed hand by your oversized bet. This may work against total idiots. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.

[crunny]

Results:

Villain calls with AJ [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]