Why is it wrong to assume all draw cards are not live?

[Psy_Mike]

When you have a flush draw, you usually count it as you have 9 outs. I know that this is correct, and this post by no means is trying to claim otherwise!

But I'm curious as to why we can not assume that some flush cards have already been dealt out. As an extreme, what if we were playing a 20 handed table for whatever reason. Do we still count it as 9 outs, even though there's only 12 cards left in the deck after all hole cards have been dealt?

And remember, I'm not trying to disprove anything at all obviously. I'm just curious why it is the way it is.

EDIT: Maybe this should be in probability :/ sorry if misplaced!

[emil3000]

All suits are equally likely to be dealt.

[Psy_Mike]

[ QUOTE ]
All suits are equally likely to be dealt.

[/ QUOTE ]

But why are we then assuming that only the other suits have been dealt to the other players?

[Keepitsimple]

Sometimes you have to discount some outs due to the way your opponent plays and board layout.

Ps. I feel so leveled. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[emil3000]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
All suits are equally likely to be dealt.

[/ QUOTE ]

But why are we then assuming that only the other suits have been dealt to the other players?

[/ QUOTE ]

We don't, we assume that the suits will on average be dealt out equally often. But yeah, you discount outs sometimes depending on the action.

[Psy_Mike]

But even though in a 6 handed game on average 3 spades will be dealt pre-flop, and you hold 2 spades, you don't assume that the third spade is gone?

This prob sounds stupid, so sorry for that lol.

[emil3000]

Yes, they're gone sometimes but the same amount of cards figure to be gone from other suits too, so chances are the same of making the draw.

[MATT111]

Look at it this way: You could as well discount for the cards that are on the bottom of the deck as we only care for the top 2 cards. It doesn`t make a difference if cards were dealt or aren`t topping deck.

[Psy_Mike]

Yeah that's true!

Thanks for all the replies all, made it clear [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
And thanks for not poking fun at me lol.

[schwza]

another way to put it is that if you play 9-handed and are drawing to a flush, the standard is to assume there are 9 flush cards left out of 47 remaining. if you did it your way you could guess ~6 flush cards left of of 31 remaining or whatever. they should work out the same.